Washington Times Reports On 48th CD Election

The Washington Times has a story today on Jim Gilchrist's campaign for the 48th CD (H/T to CA-48). This is very good exposure to the national conservative community for Mr. Gilchrist.

The story has this to say about a Democrat's chances of winning the seat:

Although the congressional district is considered conservative, a Democrat or moderate Republican could win because of the state's unusual "open" primary rules in special elections.

All candidates are on the same ballot, regardless of party, and a candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win -- an unlikely event with nearly 20 candidates in the race.

If nobody wins, the top vote-getters of each party would face off in a Dec. 6 general election, and as the lone independent, Mr. Gilchrist is assured a spot.    

A split among conservatives voting for Mr. Gilchrist and state Sen. John Campbell, reportedly backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, could swing the vote to a Democratic candidate, Mr. Hoffenblum said.

"Gilchrist will appeal to the hard-core conservatives on the single issue of immigration, and one would think, take votes away from John Campbell," Mr. Hoffenblum said.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had this to say about their chances of winning the race:

A spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not return a call for comment on the race.

Comments

[Phil Paule]

"""A split among conservatives voting for Mr. Gilchrist and state Sen. John Campbell, reportedly backed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, could swing the vote to a Democratic candidate, Mr. Hoffenblum said.""

Mr. Hoffenblum has been watching too many re-runs of the West Wing

[Allan Bartlett]

The scenario that I see playing out is that no one gets 50%+1 in the primary. The general will look something like what happened in the Minnesota gubernatorial of 1998 when Jesse Ventura ran as an independent and won with like 38% or something and the other two major parties each received around 30% or so.

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[Phil Paule]

Allan

Please don’t underestimate the power of Gilchrist

Most political insiders think Gilchrist will get 95% of the vote in the first round. He will then go on to be President of the United States just like Ventura did.

[Allan Bartlett]

We have a comedian in our midst and his name is Phil. I never said that he was going to get 95% did I Phil. I think this race will go down to the wire and the winner will be Jim with a plurality of the vote. I think a wager is in order to settle this Phil don't you? Like lunch or dinner maybe? Put your money where your mouth is.

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[NickM]

Wasn't this the subplot of The Dead Zone?

Nick

[Jim Lacy]

Phil, and all: Just got off the telephone with Allan Hoffenblum who says the Washington Times misquoted him. What he told the reporter was that BREWER could win if Campbell and Gilchrist divided the vote; he didn't say the Democrat would win under those circumstances, which was what was reported. This is a case of the Washington Times reporter engaging in "outcome determinative" journalism, something many of us are unfortunately familiar with. The Washington Times reporter is the guy who needs to turn his TV off, not venerable Allan Hoffenblum.

Allan

I don't make bets with people that use phony names on Blog sites.

Sincerely,

Philip Edward Paule

[Allan Bartlett]

LOL Phil. I guess I didn't graduate from Mater Dei in 1988 or attend Our Lady Queen of Angels school in Newport Beach 1977-1984. I guess I don't exsist. I guess I'm just like a Phil Hendrie character(who by the way is hilarious). Why don't you ask my Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who frequents this blog if my name is fake? What is your point anyway?

[Phil Paule]

If Allan Bartlett is your real name then I own you an apology. My point is that I don’t wager on the out come of campaigns- I just win them. Is your Assemblyman Chuck DeVore as excited as you are in your support for American Independent Party member Jim Gilchrist? It would be a bold move for Assemblyman DeVore to jump ship and endorse Gilchrist. If any member of the Orange County legislative delegation has the guts to do so it would be Assemblyman DeVore.

[Allan Bartlett]

Apology accepted Phil. I speak for myself and a lot of other Republicans who are tired of the double talk, inaction and flat out refusal of our representatives to control the borders. As far as Assemblyman Devore goes, I believe he has endorsed Senator Campbell which is fine with me. I wouldn't expect anyone in elected office to endorse Jim Gilchrist, but the rank and file/volunteers are excited about Jim's campaign. In fact since your probably working for Senator Campbell Phil, why don't you go ahead and tell us what the number one issue is right now in this election according to your internal polling. I saw the PPIC poll this morning and illegal immigration is right there at the top. I could have told them that.
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[Phil Paule]

Allan

I respect your virws on illegal immigration, but if you are really serious about them why don't you work for someone that you can have some influence on like John Campbell. When the dust is settled, Campbell will be a Member of Congeress. If you helped him get elected he would listen to you and your views. Instead you have chosen to associate yourself with a Jim "Cindy Sheehan" Gilchrist who would rather hold a protest sign then work to really make a difference.

I am sure that when President Bush is in Ontario next week you and Jimmy Gilchrist and the rest of the Gilchristians will be outside holding signs of protest, singing songs, shouting slogans and proclaiming Bush to be nothing but a tool of the Trilateral Commission hell bent on one world government.

Just remember, to govern you first have to get elected. In a few short weeks Campbell will be elected and making national policy and Gilchrist will still just be making protest signs in his garage.

[Allan Bartlett]

"I respect your views on illegal immigration, but if you are really serious about them why don't you work for someone that you can have some influence on like John Campbell"

That's funny Phil. Senator Campbell has voted to give benefits to illegals in the past and he has openly talked to a Register reporter that "they're here so we might as well give benefits to them". Is that the kind of leadership on this issue that your talking about Phil. Why should I believe that he will go to Congress and fight against illegal immigration when he has already shown his true colors? Last point, I know it probably makes you feel superior to call me and Jim Gilchrist funny names, but that is generally a sign of someone who is losing the debate when you resort to that :)

Nice smiley face...Allan you wouldn't happen to be a Log Cabin Republican would you?

[Allan Bartlett]

Thanks, but I'm as hetero as they make em'. I wonder more about people like yourself though who see fit to slur people because you are losing the debate.

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[S. Roudermund]

I have found myself with a litle extra time on my hands right now, so I thought I would look through the voter file for the 48th Congressional District. Seems that there is no Allan Bartlett registered in the 48th.

[Allan Bartlett]

I go by my first name for my registration which is George. Got it, George A Bartlett. My middle name is Allan. You guys are hilarious. I hope you're coming up with better opposition research than trying to call me gay because if it is, that is speaking volumes about the type of campaign you guys are running. This all the more funny because my name isn't even on the ballot. Maybe I should have run, LOL.

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[redperegrine]

So, uh, S. Rodermund (if that is you) since you read this blog why dontcha tell us about your time off (see News Roundup post for 8/26)and keep us from having to guess?

[Sam Roudermund]

I have some extra time on my hands because I work for Brewer campaign and we have NOTHING going on. Please don't confuse me with my brother Steve, he won't return my phone calls. I wounder why ????

[Hanna]

This thread is hilarious.

I did not know that Allan was a Log Cabin Republican. Good for you Allan. Way to stand up for what you believe in. :)

[Allan Bartlett]

"I work for Brewer campaign and we have NOTHING going on"

It would seem that that is a perfect metaphor for Marilyn's campaign. Thanks also for the confirmation about nothing happening. I also agree with Hanna on this thread. I'm rolling on the floor laughing.

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Whatever happened to “speak no evil of another republican’? Wasn't that Ronnie’s rule?

[Hanna]

This was ture for the old Republican party, when it stood for small government, fiscal conservatism and "live and let live." Before it was taken over by rabid ideologists who decided that it is the role of government to stick its nose in people's private lives and in the minds of impressionable children.

And, of course, this was before it sailed over these side issues to convince all the white males who, like the Nazis of 1934, were looking for someone to blame for their failures and to capture all branches of government and... throw away any notion of small government and of fiscal conservatism.