35th SD Election Predictions: Guess Correctly And Win An OC Blog Mug!

As has become our tradition in special elections, it's time for readers to post their predictions as to the outcome of today's special election in the 35th Senate District.

The prize: this handsome OC Blog coffee mug:

Post you prediction for the percentages received by Republicans Assemblyman Tom Harman, Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey and Democrat Larry Caballero -- include the first decimal place in order to break any ties.

Good luck!

UPDATE: If you don't attach at least a psuedonym to your prediction, it will be disqualified.

I won't enter with specific numbers, but I'm predicting a Harkey win -- even if she loses the Election Day.

Comments

[Johnny Slash]

44.9% Harkey and The MoHarks
32.4% Harman's Hermits
22.7% Guy Cabellero, President and Owner of SCTV

Sad to say...

Harmon 41.7%
Harkey 33.4%
Caballero 24.9%

I would like to see Diane get the brass ring, but I fear it may not be the case today. (I hope I am wrong)

[Hello, I'm Johnny Rash]

Caballero 20%
Harkey 41%
Harmen 39%

[Allan Bartlett]

Harkey 37.9%
Harman 32.1%
Caballero 30.0%

Go Diane!

Powder Blue Report

[redperegrine]

Harman: 39.2 %
Harkey: 34.1 %
Caballero: 26.7%

[Harman is the One!]

Harman 43.3%
Harkey 31.7%
Caballero 25.0%

[Curious]

I fear Harkey did not have name ID to win big in absentees. Hope I am wrong big time.

Harmon 38

Harkey 34

Caballero 28

[Not Today]

Harman: 44.5%
Harkey: 22.5%
Caballero: 33.0%

Harkey rules, but cannot pull this off.

[Bill Braski]

Harkey: 40.2%
Harman: 37.8%
Caballero: 22.0%

[Phil Paule]

Caballero 23.0
Harkey 39.3
Harmen 37.7

[john lewis]

my wild guess
Harkey 40%
Harmon 32%
Caballero 28%

[OC_Spock]

Loved the SCTV flashback

Harkey 40.6
Harmon 36.8
Caballo 22.7

[SOC Watcher]

Harkey- 42.7%
Harmon- 39.4%
Caballero- 17.9%

Cross-over Dems dilute Caballero's count but Harmon still loses.

i predict that at the end of the night after all the votes are counted....

harkey- totally hot
harmon- old and bald

[tylerh]

The prior poster nails it and definitely deserves a prize. But I think Jubal wanted something like:

Harman 45.8
Harkey 30.5
That SCTV guy 24.7

Truthfully, I haven't a clue. I'm using the old statistical trick of "picking what no one else has". But, if by random miracle, I get this one right, you'll be hearing me crow about it for years.....8)

[Mark Brainard]

Caballero 22.5%
Harman 35.6%
Harkey 38.7%

[Jon Dumitru]

Harkey...44.2

Harman...37.4

Caballero...18.4

Roll the bus out...lets go to vegas

[Shawn Fago]

42.8 Harkey
39.1 Harmon
18.1 Caballero

Its time for Harmon to retire.

[Build it Now!]

Even though Harman is in favor of increased traffic congestion for his potential constituents to the South, (his anti-Foothill-South stance), I think he'll win on name ID.

Go Dianne!!

Harman 41.3%
Harkey 39.2%
Caballero 19.5%

Jimmy's a tad bit touchy today.

Wonder why. LOL

[Dwight Robinson]

Outright win!!!

Harkey 50.3

Harman - 29.5

Sacrificial Dem - 20.2

[wishful thinking]

The lovely Harkey: 78.9%
Liberal Harman: 12.3%
Caball...who?: 8.8%

[garscon]

Alvarez: 39%
Solorio: 49
de la Libertad: 12%

[GNS]

Who the mug from the last contest to name that dog?

[Hanna]

One would think that if people are making predictions, that they will at least know who the candidates are.

It is Harman. Not Harmon and not Harmen and not even Harem (thought perhaps then he would win by a landslie).

[Roastedredpeppers]

Harmon 38

Harkey 27

Caballero 33

[Bladerunner]

HARKEY---- 39.4%
HARMON---- 32.8
CABALLERO- 28.6%

[OC Democrat]

Harkey and Harmon split the Reps in the greatest upset in local political history...

Harkey 35.0%

Harmon 32.6%

Caballero 35.2%

Unfortunately for Caballero, he will get steamrolled by Harkey.

[Art Pedroza]

Caballero - 29.5

Harman - 39.6

Harkey - 30.9

[Joe Kerr]

Harkey 52.9%
Harman 34.5%
Caballero 18.4%

[Proud Dem]

Harman- 39.8%
Caballero- 30.4%
Harkey- 29.8%

My guess, I like Caballero but there are just too many Reps. Hopefully bitter Harkey supporters stay home in June.

[Manny]

Manny Manniford here. At the risk of sounding insightful.

Since so many of you have been asking, I've decided to weigh in with my opinion on the frontrunner in the current election in SD 35th Congressional District. It is painstakingly obvious that Brian Bilbray is the best candidate to take over Congressman Duke Cunningham's seat. Having prior experience, one heck of a resume, and being one of the few people worthy of being called my friend is more then credentials enough. Congressman Issa's staffers have done a fine job of representing Brian.

I will consider my word on this matter to be the FINAL word.

Also, after a great deal of deliberation and intraspection, and as many of you know, I have decided to retire my post at hack n flack. This was not an easy decision, nor was it a spurious one. If any of you wish to comment further, you should direct your emails to www.i-am-courting-political-suicide-by-questioning-Manny's-Authority.com

All that being said, I am in a fine mood today, and so, I will leave you now to digest the wisdom I've just espoused.

http://itsrainingmanny.blogspot.com

[Billy Bob]

Ma Harkey 36.5%

Harmin' 34.4%

Cabal 28.8%

Diane runs thru the tape......

[Support the 241]

Not to split hairs (or hares--it's Easter week) on spelling, but let's be clear: It's Diane Harkey and Dianne Harman. Go Diane!

[NickM]

Harkey 39.1
Harman 36.3
Caballero 24.6

Nick

[Neil Brown]

Caballero 24%
Harkey 39%
Harman 37%

[Mike Milliman]

Harkey 24%
Caballero 29%
Harman 47%

[J. Moreno]

harkey 62.7

Harman 21.5

Cabello 19.8

[Support the 241]

Hey, Jubal, it would be great to graph this to see how the predictions stack up for each candidate. Whaddya say?

[bystander]

Harman - 37.0%
Caballero - 32.0%
Harkey - 31.0%

[Chris Prevatt]

Caballero 29.3%
Harman 35.2%
Harkey 33.5%

[Bill Evers]

Caballero 19.9%
Harkey 41.2%
Harman 38.9%

[Bill Evers]

Caballero 19.9%
Harkey 41.2%
Harman 38.9%

[Don't Be That Guy]

Bill Evers, don't be that guy that not only double posts, but double posts after polls close and initial results are available!

Don't be that guy.

that's right...the number are in...and he still has his prediction wrong

[Hanna]

From the OCR Buzz

Harman v. Harkey predictions

You can win an OC Blog mug if you're closest to guessing tonight's results. Although the bloggers have tended to favor Diane Harkey, Tom Harman is running strong among those guessing so far -- even being named by some prognosticators who favor Harkey. I didn't count them up, but these political junkies and candidate backers seem fairly evenly split. You can put your guess in and see what others are saying here.

-- Martin Wisckol

[Information Desk]

Dude -- Harkey LOSES...just another example of how out of touch you dopes are. Laughing all the way to the polling booth...

[prediction]

Here's my prediction....I've really got a good feeling about it too!

Harman: 38.8%
Harkey: 38.2%
Dem: 23.0%

[Don't Be That Guy]

Information Desk:

Don't be that guy that calls everyone a dope for making a prediction when you didn't even go on record here to make a prediction yourself!

The predictions look split to me anyway, so I'm not sure what you're crowing about.

[Rob Nelson]

Tom Harman will win and so will the environment. District 35 doesn't want a Right Wing Wacko! Tom Harman proves you can be a Republican and still care about clean oceans/water and the environment.