Switching Sides: Tan Nguyen for Congress Update

Last week Jubal pointed out the cash-on-hand chasm of $946,882 between 10-year incumbent Loretta and GOP nominee Tan. She has increased her fundraising efforts while the Tan Machine only lists a golf tournament in October at the Meadowlark Golf Course inHuntington Beach. Now I'm only a hacker but I've played in a number of tournaments in the O.C. over the past decade at Dove Canyon, Pelican Hill, Strawberry Farms, Newport Beach CC and others. Meadowlark GC? Good luck selling out there! Loretta held her own tournament last month at Tustin Ranch GC, a very decent track.

http://65.45.193.26:8026/cms/acct/tan4congress/main/
http://loretta.org/events.php

An interesting outcome was that Tan received 4,819 more votes in the 2004 Dem primary for the 46th CD (I believe he moved up from San Diego) than he got in the Rep primary in the 47th CD last month. He hardly spent any money to garner nearly 15,000 votes in '04.

June 6 COST per vote: Cassie DeYoung ~$95; Tan Nguyen ~$40. Any guestimates for Nov. 7?

Are Republicans going to close ranks and help Tan like they're pouring money into Lynn Daucher's Senate race?  Several weekends ago I saw Rosie Avila who got spanked by nearly 18% and she's already "training" for a rerun in '08. Has Avila endorsed and helped Tan? If not why not? What about the Supervisors (Norby, Campbell, Silva) who had endorsed her and held a fundraiser for her in April? Tan did get paid support from OC GOP chairman emeritus Tom Fuentes. What about Art Pedroza and Tim Whitacre? How come the LAT, the OCR and other local media have ignored this self-funding congressional primary winner?

I decided to call Tan's campaign HQ and spoke to Ryan last Friday. He was supposed to reply to my inquiries in writing but he never did.  Here are the four questions and his answers, in brackets.

1/ How do you plan to close the gap/raise more money for the general? [Tan will transfer more money when it's needed.]
2/ What/where are the major upcoming fundraising events? [We're working on them. There's a golf tournament on Oct. 5.]
3/ Does Tan plan to expend more personal money? [Yes.]
4/ Are you receiving help from the OC GOP and Vietnamese American elected officials? [Hmm...we've spoken to a few people  (I won't mention any names here since I cannot confirm) and they said they will jump in after the primary.]
--------------------------------------------------------------
As of June 30, 2006

47th District
• Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Garden Grove
Raised: $910,012, including $405,482 from PACs; Cash on hand: $960,705
• Tan Nguyen, R-Santa Ana; Raised: $36,640. No PAC money. Candidate loaned $349,000 to the campaign.
Cash on hand: $13,823
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States Congress District 46
Results as of Mar 29, 2004 at 8:25 am
All Counties Returns   | Select a district | Other Contests
Candidate                                  Votes  Percent
Democratic     100.0% ( 130 of 130 ) precincts reporting     
* Jim Brandt                              21,317    48.7 
   Paul C. Wilkins                           8,210   18.7 
  Tan D. Nguyen                            14,292    32.6 
Republican     100.0% ( 130 of 130 ) precincts reporting     
  Districtwide
  * Dana Rohrabacher                        68,969   83.6 
    Robert K. Dornan                        13,583    16.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Congress All Districts
100.0% ( 724 of 724 ) precincts reporting as of Jul 6, 2006 at 9:06 pm
District 47 - Democratic        100.0% ( 257 of 257) precincts reporting
* Loretta Sanchez                           19,179 100.0 
District 47 - Republican       100.0% ( 257 of 257) precincts reporting
  Rosemarie I. Avila                         6,453   37.8 
* Tan Nguyen                                9,473   55.4 
  Angelita J. Campos                         1,175   6.8 

Comments

[tylerh]

Quang,

you're a strong poster. I appreciate that you are more interested facts than provocative language (cf. Lurk's post today that violates Jubal's posting etiquette).

I hope you stick around when Jubal gets back from vacation.

[Quang]

Tylerh, at my pharma consulting rate, I don't think Jubal can afford to "pay" me for more than five weekdays :) I charge 2X for the hours between 4 - 8 a.m. I'm taking a break from the O-Juice this week to help out here. Don't know if I'll get to keep my blogging priviledges.
FYI, Jubal doesn't look anything in person like his Blogpen caricature...

Tan, stop wasting your money!

[Alex Miller]

fascinating numbers. Thanks for digging these up!

No reputable GOPers are backing Tan because he isn't a reputable GOPer himself.

Tan can say "well Loretta was once a Republican" until he is blue in his face, but the truth is that Loretta has proven to her constituents that she is fighting in congress for what is right for the 47th.

[Art Pedroza]

Quang, you are to be commended for your research, however as I wrote at my blog in response to your post, Nguyen's issues are not exactly those of most Republican candidates. If he wants our support, he needs to revisit what he stands for, and he needs to reach out to us. I have yet to hear from him - and really don't expect to at this point.

Lets not discount the fact that with registration the way it is, the district isn't in play.

If it were, the RNCC would've picked a horse in the primary. It probably wouldn't have been Rosie or Tan.

[Jeff Chavez]

I'd say 41% Dems, 37% Reps, 18% DTS and 4% third party is in play but not for the half-hearted career GOP politicians who only trade seats when they're termed out. Call me in Texas for 2008...

That would be in play if it were an open seat, but not against an incumbent and not with out money from Washington.

actually the amount loretta has raised is a little more..

$930,619

only 20k, but it is pretty substantial considering thats around what tan has raised altogether

source: federal election commission:
http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_06+H6CA46033

[Bladerunner]

Loretta is running hard, as she always does, despite consistenly weak opposition. I've posted before--GOP can keep sending up clay pigeons to run against her but any realistic chance to win the seat will need to wait until she moves on, which might not be for a long time if the Dems take back the House.

Voter turnout in the 46th is far different than the 47th. You are talking about 43,819 votes that were cast in the 46th 2004 Dem. Primary vs. 17,101 cast in the 47th this past June. You are clearly comparing Apples to Oranges when talking about the 2 districts. We are also in a Non-Presidential Election, which makes a big difference.

[jameskpolka]

i think tan nguyen will no longer be campaigning in the congressional race. watch this space for further updates. watch this space for any sightings of the candidate.

[But Tre]

Dear Mr. Tan Nguyen,

Your letter to the 14,000 Latino registered voters is nothing but a cheap shot with the intention to intimidate the recipients to stay home. When your hand was caught in the cookies jar, you tried to come up with a lame excuse and blamed it on the translator, the media, your opponent, the political parties, and everyone else instead of taking the responsibility yourself.

According to professor Roberto Ignacio Diaz, chair of the Spanish and Portuguese department at the University of Southern California: "The word 'emigrado' in this usage has to mean immigrant. It can't mean anything else" . I trust that Professor Diaz knows more about Spanish and its usage than you, your staff, or the media ever would, Mr. Tan Nguyen.

By the way, how would you react if Ms. Sanchez, your opponent, sent a letter similar to yours to the registered Vietnamese voters?

In your press release, you asked "What is going on? And who is fueling this hysteria?".

The answer is: It's the democratic process that's going on; it's the foundation for democracy that's going on; and it's the intolerance of voters intimidation that's going on. And you, sir, just need to look in the mirror to see who is fueling this hysteria.

Sir, you are a disgrace to the Viet community. Or to use your slogan "Not afraid to tell it like it is", you are as stinky as horse manure in this race.

Bút Tre
A Vietnamese American, an "emigrado", and a US Citizen

[Darla]

One can not be an "emigrado", and a US Citizen.

[Lance Sjogren]

I am curious who elected But Tre to speak on behalf of the Vietnamese Community.

There are a large number of Vietnamese Americans I work with in my job in the aerospace industry.

I have never heard any of them indicate that they had voted for But Tre to speak for them.

[Lance Sjogren]

By the way, those who are going postal over the Tan Nguyen letter:

Are those same people willing to support reforms of the election system to assure that noncitizens do not illegally vote?

The fact is, with an estimated 12-20 million illegal aliens in this country, the "honor system" on voting is no longer acceptable.

I understand why Democratic politicians aren't interested in such reforms. Not that they necessarily actually want to encourage voter fraud, but I do think the fact that they know that to the extent it occurs they are the primary beneficiary makes them inclined to "go with the flow".

In the long run, if our election system is corrupted by rampant voter fraud, everyone loses.

[The perfect Christmas gift for soon-to-be convicted criminal Tan Nguyen--- Vasoline.]

Lance,

Who appointed you to be the expert on our voting system?

Besides, I know many Americans who "emigrado" from Vietnam that don't like the Vietnamese Americans" classification.

They are Americans! Right?

That's the problem with people like you one minute you guys are saying lets get rid of hypens the next minute you are using them.

"Are those same people willing to support reforms of the election system to assure that noncitizens do not illegally vote?"

If it didn't happen before Nov 7th, it won't happen after.

"I understand why Democratic politicians aren't interested in such reforms."

If the Republican politicians wanted to pass a measure they had the majority members in the House and Senate, as well as the President to accomplish "such reforms".

Think, man think.

"In the long run, if our election system is corrupted by rampant voter fraud, everyone loses."

But didn't you say on the previous sentence,

"I do think the fact that they know that to the extent it occurs they are the primary beneficiary makes them inclined to "go with the flow".

So then, someone does win.

Lastly, work through your arguments before you present them.

[john chang]

to the people who read and follow mr. tan nguyen's stories:

the people have the saying: "take the loss and move on". if mr. tan nguyen was a smart politician/leader, he did not have to send those kind of letters to anyone; his leadership skill would do just fine if he had any leadership skill at all. a competent politician/leader would have his leadership skill transparency among his community and he'd win the race as easy as eating his piece of cheesecake. well, apparently, he does not have any leadership skill, but just talk coming out of his ass. and so we, vietnamese-american don't need a not-so-smart leader to represent us. what we need is one who can represent us vietnamese-american as well as all american in this country with the old fashion values; such as integrity and honesty.