1st SD Special Election: Predictions Contest!

It's time for that beloved Red County/OC Blog tradition -- the election prediction contest.

This one will be fairly straightfoward, given the ballot. Simply list the candidates and the percentage you predict they'll receive.

You must list all the candidates on the ballot...and the carry the percentage out at least one decimal place (.0 is fine).

We have a fine prize bundle for the winning prognosticator:

This handsome Red County/OC Blog coffee mug...

...and, appropriately enough, a trusty Magic 8-Ball to guide you in making important life decisions...

Good luck...and remember: any predictions posted after 8:00 p.m.will be disqualified!

Comments

[Critic]

1.8% Franklin
2.2% Moreno
3.4% Marsh
4.4% Diaz
6.9% Tran
15.3% Bustamente
15.5% J Nguyen
16.5% Rosen
16.8% T Nguyen
17.3% Umberg

[Phil Paule]

2.9% Moreno
3.2 Franklin
3.2% Marsh
4.6% Diaz
6.1% Tran
13.3% Bustamente
13.5% Rosen
14.5% Photoshop Nguyen
19.3% Umberg
19.4 Janet

[Andrew Davey]

Here goes! ; )

19.5% Umberg
18.0% Janet Nguyen
15.0% Mr. Photoshop Nguyen
13.6% Bustamante
13.3% Rosen
6.4% Pham
5.0% Diaz
3.2% Marsh
3.1% Franklin
2.9% Moreno

[Art Pedroza]

Looks like someone is going to get mugged by Red County...

Here's my fearless forecast:

1.2% Kermit "Vote for Carlos" Marsh
2.2 Brett Franklin
3% Lupe "Tancredo-Mobile" Moreno
3.1% Larry "TV Producer" Phan
8.7% Benny Diaz
13.1% Carlos "Space Command" Bustamente
13.5% Mark "Tom Sucks" Rosen
15.2% Trung "Photoshop" Nguyen
25.3% "Cardboard" Tom Umberg
28.2 Janet Nguyen

[Nick Berardino]

Hillary Clinton 35.6%
Barack Obama 39.8%
John Edwards 16.0%
Bill Richardson 5.0%
Joe Biden 3.0%
Christopher Dodd 0.5%
Dennis Kucinich 0.1%

Oops, wrong election!! Tom, there may be a slight problem with our GOTV program.....

[642]

24.5% Umberg
13.0% Janet Nguyen
9.0% Tran Nguyen
10.6% Bustamante
7.3% Rosen
4.4% Pham
4.0% Diaz
4.2% Marsh
2.1% Franklin
3.9% Moreno

[The Prophet]

0.6% LARRY PHAN
2.4% BRETT ELLIOTT FRANKLIN
10.2% CARLOS BUSTAMANTE
28.3% TOM UMBERG
3.1% KERMIT MARSH
1.6% LUPE MORENO
2.9% BENNY DIAZ
8.5% MARK ROSEN
12.3% JANET NGUYEN
30.1% TRUNG NGUYEN

I WON THE MUG, DUDE!

[nccr]

30% Trung Nguyen
20% Tom Umberg
18% Carlos Bustamante
15% Janet Nguyen
8% Mark Rosen
2% Benny Diaz
0.7% Larry Phan
0.6% Brett Franklin
0.5% Kermit Marsh
0.3% Lupe Moreno

[ONE WHO DOESN'T KNOW...JOE BROWN]

02.6% LARRY PHAN
03.4% BRETT ELLIOTT FRANKLIN
17.2% CARLOS BUSTAMANTE
31.3% TOM UMBERG
00.4% KERMIT MARSH
00.1% LUPE MORENO
03.9% BENNY DIAZ
06.5% MARK ROSEN
21.3% JANET NGUYEN
14.3% TRUNG NGUYEN

[OCNative]

22.8% Umberg
20.1% J. Nguyen
15.8% T. Nguyen
12.8% Bustamante
12.7% Rosen
5.3% Franklin
4.6% Diaz
3.6% Marsh
1.5% Phan
0.8% Moreno

[santa ana dem]

Umberg 23.3%
T. Nguyen 20.2%
J. Nguyen 18.6%
Bustamante 16.7%
Rosen 9.8%
Diaz 5.4%
Franklin 3.4%
Other 2.6%

[Nesta]

Trung Nguyen: 27.8%
Tom Umberg: 26.0%
Janet Nguyen: 21.1%
Carlos Bustamante: 15.3%
Mark Rosen: 6.2%
Benny Diaz: 1.5%
Others: 2.1%

[go with tan]

Janet Nguyen........19%
Tom Umberg..........17%
Carlos Bustamante...14%
Trung Nguyen........10%
Mark Rosen...........8%
Brett Franklin.......5%

[Ryan Gene]

I know it's a shot in the dark, but whatever. I'm free to post this.

I'm predicting 23.6% overall turnout for the election. Followed by these results:

Janet Nguyen - 13,024 (26.8%)
Tom Umberg - 12,523 (26.8%)
Trung Nguyen - 6,512 (13.4%)
Mark Rosen - 5,218 (10.7%)
Carlos Bustamante - 4,962 (10.2%)
Larry Phan - 2,171 (4.5%)
Kermit Marsh - 1,275 (2.6%)
Brett Franklin - 1,240 (2.6%)
Benny Diaz - 1,044 (2.1%)
Lupe Moreno - 620 (1.3%)

TOTAL - 48,589 ballots cast

[van fremont]

0.6% LARRY PHAN
2.4% BRETT ELLIOTT FRANKLIN
10.2% CARLOS BUSTAMANTE
26.2% TOM UMBERG
3.1% KERMIT MARSH
1.6% LUPE MORENO
2.9% BENNY DIAZ
8.5% MARK ROSEN
26.4% JANET NGUYEN
18.1% TRUNG NGUYEN

[Mark Brainard]

I think I won the last special election predictions, so I would like that mug to go with my beerstien. Here it goes:
Janet Nguyen 22.3%
Tom Umberg 22.0%
Carlos Bustamonte 19.6%
Trung Nguyen 12.8%
Mark Rosen 7.5%
Brett Franklin 4.7%
Larry Phan 4.1%
Benny Diaz 3.9%
Lupe Moreno 1.6%
Kermit Marsh 1.5%

and two write-in votes cast for Mark Leyes from the Stately Leyes Manor likely by the homeowners.

[Mark Brainard]

I think I won the last special election predictions, so I would like that mug to go with my beerstien. Here it goes:
Janet Nguyen 22.3%
Tom Umberg 22.0%
Carlos Bustamonte 19.6%
Trung Nguyen 12.8%
Mark Rosen 7.5%
Brett Franklin 4.7%
Larry Phan 4.1%
Benny Diaz 3.9%
Lupe Moreno 1.6%
Kermit Marsh 1.5%

and two write-in votes cast for Mark Leyes from the Stately Leyes Manor likely by the homeowners.

[One Who Knows]

It looks like most respondents are predicting a close race between Umberg and the commentator's favorite candidate.

If their predictions are correct, nobody will be drinking out of the OC Blog mug for quite some time as the Registrar labors through his post-election reviews of late absentee and provisional ballots.

Could this election be another Correa-Daucher squeaker?

I don't think so, but others obviously disagree.

My prediction is that Tom gets 55% of the Democratic vote, 15 % of the Republican vote and 40% of the "other" vote. That gives him about 33% overall.

Nobody else will be above 25%.

[UtSay]

26.8% Trung Nguyen
22.2% Tom Umberg
14.3% Janet Nguyen
11.3% Carlos Bustamante
8.2% Mark Rosen
7.2% Brett Franklin
3.2% Benny Diaz
3.1% Kermit Marsh
2.6% Lupe Moreno
1.1% Larry Phan

[Joe Shaw]

Tom Umberg 31%
Carlos Bustamante 18%
Janet Nguyen 17%
Trung Nguyen 14%
Benny Diaz 6%
Mark Rosen 6%
Brett Franklin 2%
Larry Phan 2%
Lupe Moreno 2%
Kermit Marsh 2%

[Tommy Lasorda]

Umberg 29%
Bustamante 21%
Trung 17%
Janet 12%
Rosen 8%
Diaz 6%
Franklin 3%
Moreno 2%
Marsh 1%
Phan 1%

[Allan Bartlett]

I'm going to stick with my original prediction of Tom Umberg to win. Great job Matt of OC Blog's wall to wall coverage of this race. You went beyond the call of duty. It's certainly a brave new world when it comes to campaign reporting with blogs.

25.4% Umberg
19.0% J. Nguyen
18.2% T. Nguyen
12.6% Bustamante
5.9% Rosen
4.4% Pham
6.7% Diaz
2.1% Marsh
2.3% Franklin
2.4% Moreno

Powder Blue Report

[OC jerk]

Total turnout: 69,696

Umberg 9% (6,273)
Bustamante 4% (2,788)
Trung 17% (11,848)
Janet 6% (4,182)
Rosen 7% (4,879)
Diaz 11% (7,667)
Franklin 9% (6,273)
Moreno 13% (9,060)
Marsh 8% (5,576)
Phan 14% (9,757)

Write in:
Leyes 1% (697)
Bush 1% (696)

[demmother]

Just an observation-

Only Joe Shaw and Tommy Lasorda put Bustamonte in the second slot.

I guess we shall find out tonight

[Claudio Gallegos]

Tom Umberg- 25.6%
Janet Nguyen- 23.2%
Carlos Bustamante- 20.4%
Trung Nguyen- 14.1%
Mark Rosen- 8.5%
Brett Franklin- 4.1%
Kermit Marsh- 2.0%
Benny Diaz- 1.7%
Lupe Moreno- 0.4%

[Quang]

Thanks but I already got a mug. Just returned from Vegas after a lop-sided Superbowl. The 1st SD race will be much tighter and go into overtime/recount. Too close to call tonight.

Tom Umberg- 21.5
Janet Nguyen- 20.5
Trung Nguyen- 19.1
Carlos Bustamante-8.2
Mark Rosen- 10.6
Larry Phan- 4.5
Benny Diaz- 3.8
Lupe Moreno- 0.3
Brett Franklin-.2
Kermit Marsh- .1

[Bolsaman Phu]

Because you hate me so much Jubal, I want to take that Mug from you. :-)

Joking aside, great coverage on this race. I found myself, as you already know, checking this blog about a dozen times a day in the past month or so.

Here is my first OC Blog prediction:

Tom Umberg 22.6
Janet Nguyen 21.9
Trung Nguyen 17.1
Carlos Bustamante 13.2
Mark Rosen 9.8
Benny Diaz 7.4
Bret Franklin 3.5
Larry Phan 2.5
Kermit Marsh 1.3
Lupe Moreno 0.7

[Eldad Taylor]

Janet Nguyen 23%
Tom Umberg 21%
Trung Nguyen 16%
Carlos Bustamante 14%
Mark Rosen 11%
Larry Phan 5%
Brett Franklin 4%
Benny Diaz 4%
Lupe Moreno 1%
Kermit Marsh 1%

[Perry Cain]

LARRY PHAN 1.0%
BRETT ELLIOTT FRANKLIN 4.5%
CARLOS BUSTAMANTE 17.5%
TOM UMBERG 20.0%
KERMIT MARSH 0.4%
LUPE MORENO 0.2%
BENNY DIAZ 0.6%
MARK ROSEN 17.0%
JANET NGUYEN 20.5%
TRUNG NGUYEN 9.5%

[demmother]

Looks like this one defied the conventional wisdom all around - I know we have to wait for the final count. No one looks close.