How Will Board Vote?

As I mentioned in a previous post, I predict the Board of Supervisors will ultimately vote 5-0 to support Sup. John Moorlach's proposal to rescind the retroactive portion of the 3%-at-50 pension spike for AOCDS members.

That Moorlach and Chris Norby will vote "yes" is a given. But what about the other three supervisors?

This issue really boils down to constitutionality: Moorlach and his staff made an extremely strong case that it's unconstitutional to retroactively hike pensions when the money is coming from the general fund. I think the other three supervisors will find those arguments very persuasive.

During one conversation today the subject of the AOCDS' support for Pat Bates in her hugely expensive campaign battle with Cassie DeYoung last year. I don't recall the exact dollar total of AOCDS IEs on Pat's behalf, but is was significant.  Frankly, I don't see that swaying Pat's opinion. No doubt she's grateful for the AOCDS' support last year, but my gut is she'll support Moorlach's proposal on its merits. Furthermore, for a conservative like Pat Bates to oppose rescinding the retroactive pension hike would open Pat to charges of payback for AOCDS support.

Almost every county observer I've spoken with today thinks Sup. Bill Campbell will vote against rescinding -- an assumption due to an unjust characterization of Bill as some kind of union shill. I disagree with their assessment. I haven't discussed the matter in detail with Bill, but my sense is he feels the county went too far with the retroactive pension hikes and will see this as an opportunity to correct that example of over-reaching.

Bill also has great respect for the law, and if he's convinced the retroactive pension hike was unconstitutional, I don't think he'll hesitate to support rescinding it.

Sup. Janet Nguyen is in the toughest political spot. While Bill Campbell might risk a primary challenge if he voted against rescinding, he'd survive it. But Janet was elected with just 24.1% of the vote in a special election in which she edged out runner-up Trung Nguyen by three votes.

I think Janet's natural inclination is to support rescission, but that would almost guarantee the AOCDS painting a big fat target on her back and pounding her with mail from her their seemingly bottomless well of IE money. I wouldn't be surprised if the AOCDS starts mailing 1st District constituents next week, urging them to urge Janet to oppose rescission.

As tempting as it would be to cast a throw-away "no" vote if rescission seems sure to pass anyway, doing so would turn-off Janet's Republican base. And the AOCDS will almost certainly back Joe Dunn or Claudia Alvarez if they challenge her.

In other words, voting against rescission would certainly lose Janet her GOP base while failing to gain her any allies. She'd simply multiply her enemies. If the AOCDS comes gunning for Janet, it might actually make it easier for her to unify the GOP behind her and encourage the Lincoln Club and the CRA to mount pro-Janet IE campaigns like they did for Moorlach in 2006. Heck, the New Majority/OC might finally decide to get involved in a local race.

One thing's for sure -- this brouhaha will make for great political and policy theater in the coming months.