OC Blog

Tom Harman Does A Solid For The Unions

Thank you to Art Pedroza for bringing this to light over at Orange Juice:

Less than a week after ostensibly Republican Assemblyman Tom Harman beat Diane Harkey for the 35th Senate District, he added his name as a co-author to Assembly Bill 2929 - a measure designed to stop the establishment and growth of merit (non-union) apprenticeship programs!

Assembly Bill 2929 is backed by several pro-union liberal Democrats and it is the #1 bill being advanced by the unions in 2006 to attack the non-union shops. The bill would establish "severe and prohibitive new standards for the approval of Merit Shop apprenticeship programs" according to my sources in Sacramento. Opponents of the bill have been unable to find out why Harman is sponsoring a union bill meant to "stop competition and choice in training for a construction career." I however know why - it is quid pro quo. The unions are spending a ton of money on the campaign of Harman's wife, Diane, for the 67th Assembly District.

Opponents of the bill ask that Harman's constituents fax Harman’s district office at (714) 843-6375 and ask him to REMOVE his co-authorship of the unions’ apprenticeship attack bill Assembly Bill 2929.

You can read the rest of Art's post here.

Is this a preview of the next six-and-a-half years, Senator-elect Harman? I'd be interested in the comments of Mark Herrick and that other guy who relentlessly attested to Tom Harman's "conservative" credentials.

Harman Win Certified

Per the Register and Total Buzz this aft: Registrar certifies Harman win in 35th District. 

Harkey's campaign manager Scott Hart says "Most likely, we're going to request a full, hand recount."

35th SD Prediction Contest: And The Winner Is...

...Phil Paule!

His prediction -- 37.7% for Tom Harman and 39.3% Diane Harkey came closest on both sides to the final result of 38.8% for Tom Harman and 38.5% for Diane Harkey.

Congratulations, Phil. Enjoy your new OC Blog coffee -- your morning coffee will taste better than ever.

John Seiler On Why Harman Won

OCR senior editorialist blogged an interesting post to Orange Punch regarding the outcome of the 35th Senate District special election:

Why Harman won -- despite being outspent

By: John Seiler

Martin Wisckol today reports that Harkey spent $33 per vote to Harman's $21 per vote in last week's state Senate race. Yet Harman won. Why?

Well, I'm in that district and I got about 5 Harman mail pieces but only one from Harkey. That may be because I'm "decline to state" and not a Republican, as are most people in the district.

You can read the rest here.

OC Blogpourri: 35th SD Cliffhanger Edition

How about a quick jog around the OC blogosphere for a sampling of reporting and reaction to the unbelievably close 35th Senate District special election?

Allan Bartlett gives an account of the Diane Harkey election night party over at Powder Blue Report, while public affairs guru Laer Pearce provides his reaction to this blow to liberty-oriented Republicanism in a snappily-written post to his snappily-written blog Cheat Seeking Missiles.

Total Buzz has lots of posts -- here and here and here and here and here and here. I especially enjoyed the posts about the scene at the OC Registrar's today. Been there, done that, don't ever want to do it again. Nail-biters are fun to watch, but not be a part of.

1:24 A.M. Harman Maintains Sliver Of A Lead

We now have 69.02% of precincts reporting in, and Harman has actually widened his lead by 45 votes:

Tom Harman              31,713      38.66%
Diane Harkey             31,229    38.07%
Larry Caballero        19,078    23.26%

Harman: Saved By The Bell?

It's still too close to call it for Tom Harman -- the way things are going this election could be decided by 100 votes or less -- which would make it recount time.

I'm struck by how closely Tom Harman's and Larry Caballero's election percentages track with the two Tarrance Group polls released by the Tom Harman campaign.

Here are the February 19-20 poll numbers:

Tom Harman: 37%
Larry Caballero: 23%
Diane Harkey: 16%

And the March 21-22 poll numbers:

Tom Harman:    38%
Larry Caballero:    25%
Diane Harkey:    23%

And now the actual numbers (as of now with ABs and 38.49% of precincts reporting):

Tom Harman: 38.43%
Diane Harkey: 37.83%
Larry Caballero: 23.74%

Harman and Caballero are ending up almost exactly where they were in late February, while Harkey more than doubled her support in seven weeks.

As I had blogged in the past, time was Tom Harman's enemy. Clearly the momentum has been with Harkey, and she may yet have enough to push her over the finish line. As FR Blogger Adam Probolsky points out, there are 5,000 ABs yet to be counted.

But if Harman ultimately edges out Diane Harkey, he can thank the Lord above this election was held today and not April 18. Although it is not the Lord to whom he will be indebted.

Harman Still Leading -- By Less Than An Eyelash

According to the most recent returns, Diane Harkey has picked up a 233 votes since the first absentees came in, with almost 40% of precincts reporting -- but Tom Harman still holds on to a 439 vote margin.

Tom Harman         28,020   38.43%
Diane Harkey         27,581   37.83%
Larry Caballero      17,305    23.74%

This is has been fascinating and confounding election watch. The conventional wisdom going into this evening -- to which I subcribed -- was the absentees vote would favor Harkey, and the Election Day vote would favor Harman. It appears it's been the other way around: Harman came head slightly ahead in the ABs, and Harkey inches upward as additonal Election Day votes are tallied.

I can't access the OC Registrar's website for some reason, so I don't know whether or not Huntington Beach precincts have come in yet. If they have Harkey is defintiely in the hunt -- if they haven't, Harman will likely hold onto his eyelash-thin lead.

UPDATE: Here's some analysis by FR Blogger Adam Probolsky.

35th SD Turnout: How Low Can You Go?

I just got off the phone with Jimmy Camp, campaign operations manager for the Harkey campaign.

He has poll checkers throughout the 35th SD, and here are the turnout numbers he's getting:

Costa Mesa
10.3% Absentee
3.5% Election Day

Irvine
15% Absentee
3.6% Election Day

Fountain Valley
11.7% Absentee
5.9% Election Day

I forgot to get Huntington Beach before I got off the phone.

Keep in mind these AB numbers are from the end-of-the-day yesterday -- they don't take into account ABs that arrived by hand or in the mail today.

If these numbers are accurate, we could be looking at around a 16% turnout for this special election. Upshot: if Harkey is leading the absentees by 10%, Harman will need to win by 20% on Election Day to pull this out.

We'll know in less than 20 minutes.

Another 35th SD Turnout Report

Here's another 35th SD special election turnout report from our man-on-the-scene:

Jubal,

Here's another precinct in HB.  Boys and Girls Club at Magnolia and Pioneer Dr.  This is a High GOP Propensity area.

This was at 4pm.

Precinct 32-146 - 20 voters

Precinct 32-149 - 13 voters

Precinct 32-205 - 14 voters

12 voters brought in Absentee Ballots

I went to four other locations and this seems to be the average turnout.

Cheers!

OC Registrar Election Link

Here's the link to the OC Registrar elections returns site for the 35th Senate District special elections.

If you are a true, he-man political junkie's political junkie, you will stare continuously at the countdown clock until the first returns are posted. And if you are an opportunistic fair-weather friend, you will then proceed to the election night party of the winning candidate.

It's Looooow Turnout Today In The 35th SD

Today's 35th SD special election was expected to be low turnout, and anecdotal evidence suggests that will indeed be the case.

A compadre de OC Blog e-mailed me this report:

At 12:20pm, I stopped by the voting location in Huntington Beach,  a church off of Hamilton and Brookhurst.

4 total precincts were voting.

#32-354 - 30 people voted

#32-196 - 5 people voted

#32-415 - 29 people voted

#32-355 - 14 people voted

Additionally, 10 people walked in their absentee ballots and two voters voted provisional because they couldn't find their proper voting location.

As I was leaving, one person was arriving.

So, by 12:30pm, 4 precincts, 91 total votes.

PS, that was the voting precinct for Tom Harman's treasurer on Capistrano Way or what ever the address that's on some of his mailers...

We'll see what the after-work voting hours do for turn-out.

FR blogger Adam Probolsky and Powder Blue Report proprietor Allan Bartlett have their own turn out reports.

35th SD Election Predictions: Guess Correctly And Win An OC Blog Mug!

As has become our tradition in special elections, it's time for readers to post their predictions as to the outcome of today's special election in the 35th Senate District.

The prize: this handsome OC Blog coffee mug:

Post you prediction for the percentages received by Republicans Assemblyman Tom Harman, Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey and Democrat Larry Caballero -- include the first decimal place in order to break any ties.

Good luck!

UPDATE: If you don't attach at least a psuedonym to your prediction, it will be disqualified.

I won't enter with specific numbers, but I'm predicting a Harkey win -- even if she loses the Election Day.

Harkey Campaign Team Goes On The Warpath

Dedication and a warrior-ethos are critical elements of a successful ground campaign.

Judging by this photo sent in by Harkey campaign operations manager Jim Camp of him and his fellow braves sporting "MoHarks," Duane Dicharia and Team Harman might want to hold on to their scalps.

That's Jim Camp on the left, by the way.

What Do You Mean 'We," Paleface?

I just love it when non-Orange County political operatives pretend to be experts on Orange County politics.

Today's Martin Wisckol piece on the 35th SD special election is a case in point:

"We all know why the hardcore conservative Republicans are behind Harkey," said Allan Hoffenblum, whose Target Book handicaps elections in the state. "It's all about the past, nothing about now."

What do you mean "we", paleface?

Allan is speaking, of course, of the circumstances of Tom Harman's original election to the legislature in 2000, in which he took advantage of the blanket primary rules and a center-left Republicanism (courtesy of $300,000 in union IEs).

Allan's analysis is also uninformed, lazy and conceited. He took the easy quote.

No OC conservative activist that I know of wants Tom Harman in the legislature for eight more years. But the problem is no longer how Harman was elected, but what his legislative/political record as an Assemblyman has been, and the fact that he's still a center-left Republican.

Allan Hoffenblum has it precisely backwards: this is about the future -- the next eight years -- which would undoubtedly resemble the past six years.

Hoffenblum's conventional wisdom-mongering supports the premise of Martin's article: that there isn't any real difference between Tom Harman and Diane Harkey.

That's true from a simplistic legislative score card view point. But such scorecards don't take good account of Harman's environment-uber-alles philosophy: his hostility to property rights as a member of Amigos De Bolsa Chica, and his intellectually dishonest opposition to completion of the Foothill-South toll road.

In this political day and age, when staunch support for property rights has vanished from the Democratic Party and lost ground within the Republican Party, GOPers shouldn't nominate a standard-bearer who's believes environmental interests (as defined by the Environmental Left) trump the traditional functions of American government such as building infrastructure and securing our property rights.

It's also important to consider that Tom Harman hasn't lifted a finger to help Orange County Republicans since 2000. If he was more savvy or politically mature  (or both), he would have let bygones be bygones and spent the last three terms mending fences. If he had done so, then maybe he'd have the endorsement of more than just a single OC Republican legislator. And if he was as conservative as he claims he is, the fence mending would have been very difficult.

Harman's decision to remain an OC political wallflower aside, I think Martin's article is wrong. There are indeed stark distinctions between Tom Harman and Diane Harkey in some vital areas. Some things are more important than other. And the quality of those distinctions -- the principles they turn on -- outweigh that they may not be great in quantity.

35th SD Mailbox: Lots O' Mail

It's the final weekend for before the election -- traditonally the biggest mail days of a campaign (along with the preceding Thursday.

It's all for the Election Day voters, now. Given that the majority of votes cast in this special election will be absentees, the election may very well be over already -- recall that John Campbell won the 48th CD special election, even though he came in third among Election Day voters.

In any case, let's go to the mailbox:

Here's the CRA IE mailer against Tom Harman I posted about yesterday, designed by JohnsonClark Associates and printed by Bieber Communications.

And here (and here) is another CCPOA IE, plus the IE mail piece from the California Dental Association PAC (here and here) -- both advocating for Harman.

At least two other mail pieces hit today, although I only have one of them in hand to post. One is a letter in a #10 envelope from the CCPOA, asking the recipient to vote for Tom Harman.

And here is the other: a "Republican Voter News" tabloid from the CRA.

As for IEs reported, there's another $19,704 from the Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers against Harman (mail and costumes) and $2,2309 from the CA Dental PAC for Harman (phone banks).

35th SD Update: More IEs

Two more IE mailers hit 35th SD mailboxes today, although I don't have them to upload.

My sterling source in the streets informed me that in addition to the ones I've already posted today, there was another IE mailer from the Lincoln Club:  "Compare the Candidate for State Senate.  Check the facts before you vote." --with the comparison on the back side.

My source also told of an IE from the California Republican Assembly -- presumably paid for by the $20,000 expenditure posted in the Secretary of State website today.

It's a physically huge mailer: "Which Candidate Will Raise YOUR Taxes" and depicting a naked man in barrel (sounds like a Bieber Communications piece). The backside features a brief description of the CRA, compares the two candidates, mentions big labor unions and quote from Jon Coupal.

As for money spent, the CCPOA reported another $55,000 spent for Harman -- about $49,000 for mail and $5500 for phone banks (too bad it's not more Mark Herrick robo-calls). That brings IE expenditures on Harman's behalf to about $294,000 -- all but $75,000 from the CCPOA. I imagine a Senator Harman would be mighty hard pressed to vote against the prison guards should he be elected.

The California Dental Association PAC also did an $18,410 mailing for Tom Harman.

As Mentioned, the CRA reported a $20,000 expenditure against Harman.

35th SD Mailbox: Harman Campaign Rolls Out The California Republican Liberals...er, League Once Again

The Tom Harman campaign dropped this piece today, asking the immortal question: "Why did the California Republican League give Diane Harkey an "F" on illegal immigration?"

The obvious answer is the CRL is a liberal shill for Tom Harman, but most 35th SD voters don't know that. Still, in the battle of endorsement mailers -- Mark Herrick and Mark Porter versus actual elected Republican leaders -- Harkey's will carry more weight than Harman's.

Although the Harman campaign has done a heck of a job raising Herrick's name ID.

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Hits Harman As The Union Candidate

The Diane Harkey campaign dropped another negative mailer on 35th SD voters, contrasting her conservative credentials with the public employee unions' determined efforts to elect Tom Harman.

Here is the mailer.

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Drops Illegal Immigration Mailer On Harman

The Diane Harkey for Senate campaign dropped this mailer on 35th SD voters today.

Ouch. This one is gonna hurt.

Kudos To The Lincoln Club...But ¿Dónde Está El New Majority?

It's six days until the April 11 special election in the 35th Senate District.

Why has The New Majority been completely AWOL?

On one hand, you have the Lincoln Club of Orange County threw in for Diane Harkey almost four months ago -- and now the Club is slugging it out with the casino tribes and the prison guards union on behalf of its candidate. That's what I've always admired about the Lincoln Club: they talk softly and carry a big sledgehammer -- and aren't afraid to use it.  And in this case they weren't afraid to fight for an unknown candidate against a comparatively well-known incumbent legislator. Diane Harkey shares their philosophy and Tom Harman doesn't, and that's what matters. Political convictions have such a clarifying effect.

On the other hand, ¿dónde está El New Majority? The biggest race of the year thus far, and in The New Majority's backyard, and they are the only GOP player to remain on the sidelines?

Practically speaking, the train has left the station as far as The New Majority opportunity to affect the outcome of the race. There's hardly any time to fire off a single IE even if TNM brings itself to make an endorsement. Maybe they could pay for some robo-calls -- but a press release is about it in the event they make an endorsement less than a week before the election.

Come on, New Majority! Use your powers for good and take a stand against the power of the public employee unions and casino tribes!  But take some kind of stand.

35th SD Update: The IEs Keep Rolling In

According to Aroundthecapitol.com's super-handy IE/late contribution tracker, the Lincoln Club of Orange County spent $10,368 in support of Diane Harkey, while the Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers spent $9,744 in attack of Tom Harman.

Over on the dark side, the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (i.e. the evil prison guards union) today dropped another $40,000 for Tom Harman.

So, the tally thus far:

• CCPOA:    $165,062
• Pechanga:    $75,000
• Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers: $100,464
• Lincoln Club of Orange County: $67,850

All but $5,000 Pechanga expenditure in Feburary has come in since March 28.

In other words, in the last 9 days, there's been $408,376 in IEs in the 35th SD.

Dats a lot o' dough.

35th SD Mailbox: NRA Helps Harman

A card from the National Rifle Association that landed yesterday, urging a vote for...Tom Harman!

You can see it here and here.

I used to be an NRA member. After seeing this, I doubt I will ever renew my membership.

If this IE evokes similar feelings in you, visit the NRA website here and tell them what you think of this endorsement.

Protest At Tom Harman's District Office Tomorrow

One of those little birds has informed me there is going to be a Tom Harman “Barrel” Tax protest tomorrow at 10:30 AM in front of Assemblyman Harman’s district office -- which is located at 17011 Beach Boulevard  in Huntington Beach.

The protest is being organized by Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers -- the same group has spent a considerable chunk of change on independent expenditures against Senor Harman. Questions can be directed to Mike Richman.

35th SD Mailbox: CCPOA Independent Expenditure For Tom Harman

A compadre de OC Blog sent me this IE from the CCPOA (the state prison guards union) that landed in the mail yesterday. You can see it here and here.

The CCPOA is one of the single-most powerful special interests in California. Only the casino tribes and arguably the California Teachers Association wield more power in Sacramento.

This is the second IE (here and here)the CCPOA has sent out on behalf of Tom Harman. Obviously, they consider it very important that Tom Harman -- and not Diane Harkey -- be elected to the state Senate.

Given that the purpose of public employee unions to use the coercive power of government to exact the maximum amount of wealth from taxpayers and transfer it their members, why are the public employee unions so anxious to elect Tom Harman and defeat Diane Harkey?

And why isn't that message being more prominenty communicated by pro-Harkey forces?

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Works The District With Some Targeted Mail

The Diane Harkey for Senate campaign dropped some targeted mailers today:

A John Moorlach endorsement piece for Costa Mesa, and John Campbell endorsement mailers for Irvine and Newport Beach respectively.

I think endorsement mailers like these are much more effective with voters than mailers and robo-calls from two guys the voters have never heard of and never cast a ballot for.

My sources tell me a second Pechanga piece hit today, and I'll post the CCPOA IE later this evening.

Speaking of IEs here are the most recent late contribution/expenditure filings for the 35th SD special election (courtesy of the Secretary of State):

• CCPOA IE
• California Apartment Association PAC (contribution to Harman...grrrr)
• Lincoln Club PAC IE
• Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers (late contribution report).

Don't Forget To Watch Harkey V. Harman

Diane Harkey and Tom Harman debate on OCBJ Executive Editor Rick Reiff's "Inside OC" program on KOCE-TV.

It aired once already on Sunday, and airs two more times this week: April 5 at 7 p.m. and 11:30 p.m., and on April 6 at 8:30 a.m.

Weird Tom Harman Campaign Newsletter

The Tom Harman campaign has sent out an odd e-mail newsletter.

Keep in mind the Harman for Senate campaign has been projecting an aura of confidence -- citing an internal poll showing Harman leading Harkey by 15 points.

The campaign newsletter, e-mailed out shortly after midnight, sings a markedly different tune:

11 VOTES DECIDE HARMAN-HARKEY CONTEST

CLOSEST STATE SENATE ELECTION IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY

Headline in The Register and the LA Times on April 12th

Does this sound farfetched? Not at all! Based on expected turnout, if the April 11th special State Senate election turned out to be as close as the 2000 Florida vote that decided the presidential election and sent George W. Bush to the White House, this is what we'd see in all the newspapers the day after the election. If the election turns out to be that close, we want to make sure Tom Harman has the 11 votes needed for victory. And they are easy to get! Turnout in a special election averages 22%, meaning that most people don't even bother to vote. Tom Harman is well-known and highly respected among those he has served for many years. Most likely you know 11 people who are unlikely to vote. Tell them about the special election. Let them know what's at stake. Ask them to vote for Tom Harman. They will be glad you took the time to inform them...and they may just be the votes that send Tom Harman to the State Senate.

Query for the Harman campaign: So which is it? Is Harman going to blow Harkey away, or is it going to be a nail biter? Clearly, there's a little too much cognitive dissonance going on at the Tom "I AM TOO a conservative!" Harman campaign.

35th SD Voicemail: A Harman Robo-Call From Tom's Other GOP Supporter

Tom Harman for Senate campaign mailers are plastered with two guys no one's ever heard of: Mark Porter and Mark Herrick. They're job appears to be convincing voters that Harman really, truly is a conservative. Honest. Cross their hearts and hope to die.

Last week, Herrick recorded a painfully long robo-call for Harman. This week ( as we posted yesterday) it is Herrick's turn -- you can listen here. Herrick doesn't utter Harman's name without first invoking the magic words "conservative Republican," like it's some kind of incantation.  Herrick then goes on to call Diane Harkey "liberal."

It's too bad our local MSM doesn't write more about the various Republican group endorsements that candidates wave like talismans to prove their conservative bona fides. I'm sure your average voter doesn't know the difference between the California Republican Assembly, the California Republican League or the California Congress of Republicans.  They don't know the CRA is conservative and the CRL is liberal.

For example, take a gander at the CRL's list of principles. #1 is legalized abortion. #2 is no government interference with contraception distribution (it's soooooo hard to get, after all), #3 is a strict separation of church and state because all those religious nuts oppose abortion and contraception, #4 is preserving the Earth for future generations, blah, blah.

You get the picture. Not exactly a clarion call of conservatism.

So, it's too bad most voters don't realize how dishonest Mark Herrick of the CRL is being in his robo-call when he calls Harman a conservative. Not only is it untrue, but the CRL is dedicated to fighting conservative influence in the Republican Party -- being a conservative is a disqualifier for CRL support.

I'm sure MSM editors think this is too inside baseball to merit coverage. However, when voters are being bombarded with endorsements from groups of which they know nothing -- like the CRL --- the MSM ought to make a point of providing voters with some independent information about these groups' philosophies and records so voters can more intelligently judge what these endorsements say about the candidate being endorsed.

35th SD Mailbox: Independent Expenditure Hits Tom Harman On Taxes

A compadre de OC Blog sent me these scans -- here, here and here -- of an anti-Tom Harman IE that presumably landed today. It's from the Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers, which has been receiving contributions from some stellar conservatives like Howard Ahmanson and Lincoln Club of OC stalwarts Buck Johns and Doy Henley -- and mail itself brought to you by JohnsonClark Associates and Bieber Communications.

By my count, this brings the Alliance for OC Taxpayers up to $64,120.45 in IEs in the 35th SD.

35th SD Voicemail: Robo-Calls For "Conservative Republican" Tom Harman

A compadre de OC Blog -- our long-lost Blogpen member Publius, in fact -- just reported receiving a robo-call from Mark Porter of the "West Orange County Taxpayers Association" touting his group's endorsement of the Janus-faced candidacy of "conservative Republican" Tom Harman. The West OC Taxpayers Association has become something of a pet grass roots group for the Tom Harman campaign, along with the liberal California Republican League.

35th SD Mailbox: Harman Ignores OC GOP Ethics Committee, Keeps Hitting Diane Harkey On her Husband's Tax Liens

Martin Wisckol wrote in this week's print Buzz column that:

One thing it will do, though, is help continue to circulate the idea that Harkey hasn't paid her taxes on time. Harman himself tried that in a mailer, and was officially admonished by the county GOP because the tax liens were actually against Harkey's husband's company, of which Diane Harkey has no official interest.

So while Harman has had to cease that line of attack, the Pechanga Band is beyond the reach of such admonishment.

Someone forgot to tell the Harman for Senate campaign, because since Martin put his column to bed at the end of last week, Harman sent out another mailer accusing Diane Harkey of "having a pattern of being UNETHICAL and DISHONEST" and saying "Diane Harkey is just plain dishonest" -- and then pointing to those same 15-year old tax liens of her husband's that the Harman campaign supposedly had to stop pointing to.

Delenda est Harman!

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Hits Harman On Ethics Charges

The Diane Harkey campaign launched another negative piece at Tom Harman that began hitting yesterday -- this time highlighting his admonishment by the Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee to "cease and desist from making the misleading representation" (although I must confess to some confusion, because this is the first I've heard of this).

Barbarians At The Gate In The 35th Senate District Special Election

It appears the barbarians are at the gates of the 35th Senate District, according to this e-mail message sent out yesterday by the Diane Harkey for Senate campaign:

Over the past several days the two public employee unions and the Pechanga Indian Casino Tribe that often works closely with them, began an independent expenditure direct mail campaign in opposition to Diane Harkey and in support of Tom Harman. 

In the last 24 hours CCPOA, CAUSE, and Pechanga alone have reported IE expenditures of:

$ 70,000

$ 16,000

$   9,000

$ 22,000

$ 30,000

$ 25,000

Expect much more in the coming days.

These are the same groups that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to a failed attempt to defeat John Campbell when he ran for this Senate seat in 2004.

There is a clarifying effect from the knowledge that the twin Goliaths of state special interest groups -- the public employee unions and the casino tribes -- have entered the fray on behalf of Tom Harman. It puts to dispels the mendacious nonsense that Tom Harman is a conservative. He's not even a poor facsimile of a conservative.

It's a bracing reminder of the stakes in this race, and of the utter necessity of denying the same special interests that have corrupted state government, the opportunity to install a sympathetic legislator in the 35th Senate District.

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; or close the wall up with our English dead. In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger...The game's afoot: follow your spirit, and upon this charge cry 'God for Harry, England, and Saint George!'"
    -Henry V, Act 3, Scene 1

35th SD Mailbox: Mail And Robocalls

Lots o' mail flying in the 35th Senate District special election.

Earlier this week, the Diane Harkey campaign sent out this mailer responding to Harman's attack mail.

Today, another Harkey mailer dropped touting her as the conservative choice for the 35th SD, with lots of endorsements from conservatives like Tom McClintock and John Campbell.

An independent expenditure from the Lincoln Club of Orange County was supposed to land today, but I don't know yet if it is a pro-Harkey or anti-Harman piece (or both). I'll post the mailer as soon as I lay my mitts on it.

And the Harman campaign has launched this robocall from Mark Herrick of the liberal California Republican League that begins with Herrick warning voters that Diane Harkey is trying to mislead them into thinking she's been endorsed by the Republican Party -- and continues with Herrick trying to leave the impression that Harman is the one with the official Republican endorsements.

Ah, home-stretch campaign politics.

Pechanga Indians Hit Harkey

The Pechanga Indians dropped a hit peice on Diane Harkey today. I'll post the mailer as soon as I can.

This begs the obvious question of why the state's most powerful interest group -- the casino Indians -- prefers Tom Harman to Diane Harkey?

Stay tuned...

UPDATE: Here's the mail piece in question.

FlashReport Endorses Diane Harkey For 35th Senate District

The FlashReport news site and blog announced its endorsement of Diane Harkey for the 35th Senate District special election:

There are two GOP candidates vying for what is a safe Republican seat -- State Assemblyman Tom Harman and Dana Point City Councilwoman Diane Harkey (pictured to the right with Congressman John Campbell).  This is a stark contrast is there ever was one.  The FlashReport strongly encourages a vote for Diane Harkey in this race.

Tom Harman was elected to the State Assembly in 2000 for one reason - because he enjoyed the support of Democrats.  You see, when he was elected, it was during the only election cycle when the now-defunct "open primary" measure was in existence.  Under that system, all voters (regardless of their party affiliation or lack of one) were able to cast a vote for any candidate on the ballot, with the top vote-getter of each party going on to the general election.  In the case of Harman's election -- we were able to actually do an analysis of the vote and confirm that his primary opponent Jim Righeimer was the actual choice of Republicans to be their nominee, but Harman was able to get enough cross-over votes from Democrats to clinch the nomination.  The good news is that right after the 2000 cycle, the State Republican Party was successful in taking a case all of the way to the United States Supreme Court and had the open primary measure overturned as violative of the rights of political parties to choose their own nominees.  Nevertheless, we were stuck with Harman.

You can read the entire commentary here.

Martin Wisckol's Take On The "Harman Get Rich" Mailer

Of the multitudinous mailers flying back and forth in the 35th Senate District special election, the most recent negative mailer from the Harkey campaign has received the most attention.

Here's Martin Wisckol's take on it yesterday in Total Buzz:

Diane Harkey's latest hit piece on state Senate opponent Tom Harman attacks him for receiving compensation as a legislator, investing in real estate, and for renting property to fellow legislators. A couple of other things too, but those are at the top of the list. If you think you're missing something, I felt the same when I picked it out of my mailbox Friday. (For the record, I am a decline-to-state voter.)

The large, full-color, slick glossy mailer tries to paint Harman as exploiting taxpayer money for personal gain. On cover, it reads: "The HARMAN METHOD to get rich quick using tax dollars while only working 3-4 days per week." But when dissected, most of the specifics seem less than harmless:

You can read the rest of Martin's post here (and be sure to leave a comment -- Martin's asking for them!).

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Hits Harman Again

The Diane Harkey and Tom Harman campaigns continue their heavy exchange of broadsides. Yesterday and Friday this Harkey mailer landed in voters mail boxes -- excoriating Harman for his wealth accumulation while in the Assembly (although Harman may want to launch a real estate advice blog).

Tom Harman Reminds Liberal Women's Group Of Al Gore

As readers of this blog know, the Tom Harman for Senate campaign has been working hard to portray him as a rock-solid conservative and Diane Harkey as a tax-hiking liberal.

An OC Blog compadre forwarded me this e-mail sent out this morning by Elaine Booth, president of Women For: Orange County. These are dedicated liberals who know the genuine article when they see it:

Dear members,

For the last two weeks I’ve been thinking about who to vote for in the upcoming primary election for CA Senate District 35. This was John Campbell’s seat. Campbell, of course, has moved on to Congress, and will be running against Steve Young in November.

The upcoming April 11th primary is open. In it there is a far-right Republican running against a moderate Republican. A Democrat won’t win no matter what we do. Senate District 35 is one of the most Republican districts in California.

I can’t drive away the thought that this primary election resembles the Bush-Gore-Nader race. Nader didn’t have a chance, and a vote for him helped to elect Bush. As most knew and some discovered, there was a big difference between Gore and Bush.

There is said to be a big difference between the Republicans running for the 35th Senate District seat. Tom Harman is against the toll road through San Onofre State Park. He has been a longtime supporter of preserving the Bolsa Chica wetlands. He has a “poorish” mixed record on choice related issues, but calls himself pro-choice and claims he would vote to keep abortion legal in California. Diane Harkey is anti-choice, and she is completely in favor of putting the toll road through the park --- the first through a California State Park, and a terrible precedent.

The Republican Party has repudiated Harman, and is generously funding Harkey. Some of you may have seen the very nasty hit pieces mailed out against Harman. (It may interest you to know that the Republican Party instructed Harman to tell his wife, Diane Harman, to give up her Assembly race. He refused to do so, and topped it off by retorting that she wouldn’t have done it anyway!)

I think we need to at least consider voting for Tom Harman in the primary. I definitely do not agree with all his positions, and that makes this decision a hard one. However, there is only one Democrat running, and he will be on the ballot for the general election in June regardless of how we vote in the primary. It keeps coming back to me that a vote for anyone but Harman is a vote for Harkey --- shades of Bush-Gore-Nader in 2000.

Some links are listed below, in case you’d like to look in more detail. (As always, if the link doesn’t work for you, paste it into your browser.)

Elaine Booth
President, Women For: Orange County

This Women For: Orange County's mission statement:

Founded in 1984, Women For: Orange County is a non-profit, grassroots, progressive organization working to reclaim our democracy, provide quality education and health care for all, cultivate peace by meeting human and environmental needs, empower women, and create a just, equitable, and sustainable world.

And who is Elaine Booth?:

Elaine is also an officer and founding member of OC ReclaimDemocracy.org, a Board member of the OC League of Conservation Voters, and a founding member of the CALIFORNIA LIST. B.A., UC Berkeley.

Clearly, there isn't a Republican cell in Ms. Booth's body, and her group is manifestly hostile to what the Republican Party stands for. Yet after looking at what Diane Harkey and Tom Harman stand for, she is reminded of the choice between George W. Bush and Al Gore.

If a dyed-in-the-wool liberal activist likens a vote for Tom Harman to a vote for Al Gore, "conservative" is the very last appellation one can apply to Tom Harman.

35th SD Mailbox: Harkey Replies To Harman's Negative Mail

Diane Harkey's campaign is in the mailbox again, this time with a piece responding to the Harman campaign's charges that she wants to raise taxes.

There are 19 days left until the April 11 election. Time is Tom Harman's enemy. If the election were held today, he would probably eke out a close win. However, each day that goes by tips the scales in Harkey's favor (at least in my opinion). The outcome will most likely turn on the percentage of ballots that are cast by absentee. From what I have seen, Harkey is mounting a much, much stronger absentee ballot program, and if absentee percentage of the vote total tracks with the 48CD special election, I think Tom Harman will one angry environmentalist on the night of April 12.

35th SD Mailbox: Harman Sends Out A Positive Piece

This positive "Tom Harman is working hard for you" piece dropped yesterday and today.

Thanks for keeping the light on for us, Tom.