OC Blog

Rick Reiff On The 48th CD Special Election

Orange County Business Journal Executive Editor Rick Reiff is a clear-headed, economic conservative not prone to alarmism or over-heated rhetoric -- which makes his commentary on the results of the 48th CD special election (published in the current OCBJ) worth reading:

Congress, Immigration

By Rick Reiff

Orange County Business Journal Staff

JOHN CAMPBELL WON THE RUNOFF IN THE FORTY-EIGHTH Congressional District for the “Chris Cox seat.” It was no surprise. But it’s still welcome news for business.

Campbell, like the man he replaces, is a fiscal hawk, a champion of entrepreneurs and a foe of burdensome government. On key votes regarding taxes, the economy and most anything else, it probably will seem like Cox never left.

In fact, some observers have called Campbell a “Cox clone,” a term not always meant flatteringly but embraced nonetheless by Campbell, even if it misses the nuances.

Yes, both are Republican, conservative, bright, preppy, USC-graduated and professionally pedigreed (law for Cox, accounting for Campbell). Both are excellent writers who like to have their opinions published.

But Cox is a powerful and patient intellectual who loves finding bipartisan consensus. His biggest congressional victories—a moratorium on Internet taxes, a phasing out of the death tax, a clampdown on trial lawyers—were brilliantly conceived, slowly achieved and often qualified.

Campbell is less patient, even hyper at times. Where Cox is an eloquent speaker, Campbell is non-stop. As a state lawmaker, Campbell has been less about consensus than confrontation, though that may owe in part to the leftist leadership he has had to contend with.

But Campbell also may prove a little bolder than Cox, who was cautious to a fault. Campbell was among the first lawmakers to back the Gray Davis recall, with money as well as words. Even his decision to run for Congress was quick and emphatic, clearing the decks of serious challengers.

More John Fund On The 48th CD Special Election

John Fund has more commentary on the 48th CD special election in today's Political Diary:

Deconstructing a Bellwether

Yesterday's posting on how Congress will react to news that Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman citizens' border patrol, won 25% of the vote in a special House election in Orange County drew a fair bit of attention.

My contention was that the anemic victory by John Campbell, the GOP state senator who won 44% of the vote (a Democrat winning most of the rest), will damage chances of Congress passing President Bush's plan for a guest-worker program to regularize the hiring of immigrant laborers. I support a well-designed guest-worker program, but I also recognize political reality. House Democrats have adopted a strategy of voting as a bloc against every significant Bush legislative proposal in hopes of creating gridlock and prompting voters to throw the GOP out of power next year. The Gilchrist showing in Orange County will lead many Republicans to vote against ANY guest-worker program for fear of being demagogued on the issue.

Some observers noted that polls continue to show only a small minority of voters are so focused on immigration that they vote solely on that basis. Turnouts in special elections are notoriously low and not a true reflection of public opinion. Orange County is a hotbed of concern over illegal immigration since it is only a two-hour drive from the Mexican border. That level of angst isn't found in most Congressional districts.

All of the above is true. But the fact remains that the Orange County results are already being viewed as a tipping point and will have an impact beyond the limited meaning of the actual numbers. Here, briefly, are my reasons:

The real shocker from the election is the fact that Mr. Gilchrist, the Minuteman activist, won the largest number of votes actually cast on Election Day. Mr. Campbell only won because of the hundreds of thousands of dollars he spent getting people to fill out absentee ballots and "banking" them. On Election Day, Mr. Campbell won only 30% of the vote, the Democratic candidate won 32% and Mr. Gilchrist won 35%. Mr. Gilchrist ran an abysmal campaign, spending his money on radio ads whose audience largely lived outside the district and ignoring absentee voters and grassroots targeting. Noting that a majority of the votes cast were absentee ballots, political consultant Chuck Muth observes that "the Gilchrist campaign simply didn't show up for the first half of the game."

The lesson from the Orange County results is that President Bush was wise to discuss combining better enforcement measures with a guest-worker program in his recent speeches along the border. The House is scheduled to vote today on a bill that would tighten employer sanctions and make it easier to deport criminal aliens. That will pass overwhelmingly. But the issue of illegal immigration will only be adequately dealt with when enforcement is combined with a workable guest-worker program.

There is a precedent for real progress on the border issue. The Bracero Program, which allowed foreign workers easier access to U.S. agriculture and construction employment in the 1950s and 1960s, worked. Arrests of illegal immigrants fell from 885,587 in 1953 to 45,336 in 1959 -- a 95% drop. Then, in 1964, President Lyndon Johnson bowed to labor union pressure and killed the Bracero Program. Arrests at the border promptly increased from 86,597 in 1964 to 875,915 in 1976, and have been inching up every year since.

The Bracero Program wasn't perfect. Some workers were exploited and there were abuses. But it demonstrated that when enforcement is combined with a legal path to work, problems at the border can be controlled. That's the message President Bush has to drive home. If he finds it necessary to take a broad guest-worker program off the table to avoid it being caught up in next year's overheated election rhetoric, so be it. It would be better to educate the public on the issue and try to pass a limited program affecting only agricultural workers than risk another major policy fumble such as Social Security. For the next year, too many members of Congress are going to be distracted by anti-immigration activists such as Jim Gilchrist and liberals who want to deny Mr. Bush any kind of legislative success.

Political Diary is a tremendous deal. For the monthly cost of a coffee at Starbucks, you get a daily dose of top-notch political news and analysis from across the country. I highly recommend subscribing.

Blogosphere Reaction To 48th CD Results

Here are some reactions from the blogosphere to the results of yesterday's 48th CD special election:

Hugh Hewitt:

Here are the vote totals.

Compare tonight's vote with the special election primary vote.

Then look at the general election from 2004, where Chris Cox rolled up 189,004 votes, and his opponent John Graham (a friend of mine and a very smart guy whom the Dems would have been wise to run again this time) tallied 93,525 votes.

What to conclude? Despite massive media attention and around-the-clock boosterism from local radio flaks and know-nothings John & Ken, the candidacy of anti-illegal immigration single issue candidate Jim Gilchrist could only muster 23,237 votes --less than one third of the Graham vote in November of 2004. No "Minuteman" candidate will ever have more favorable conditions than this special election, and still the Minuteman candidate failed miserably. As will a Congressman Tancredo if he mounts a "run" for the presidency.

Read the rest of Hugh's post here.

Jon Fleischman at FlashReport.org:

All of the 'spin' on this race is that somehow the results, one way or another, would send some sort of national message on immigration reform issues.  I would submit to you that both Campbell and Gilchrist were running to the far-right on this particular issue - so I guess the news is that over 70% of voters in this special election cast their ballot for a candidate that wants a much stronger policy against illegal immigrants, both at the border as well as those currently residing in the U.S.

Read the rest of Jon's commentary here.

Allan Bartlett at Powder Blue Report:

Tonight there was a message sent to President George W Bush and the open border GOP establishment. Any immigration bill with "guest worker", undocumented worker, day laborer or any any other semantical form of amnesty is DOA, end of story. A band of rag tag but dedicated Jim Gilchrist volunteers beat the Orange County GOP's vaunted election day GOTV operation and what do I read on places like OC Blog and others.......pure arrogance from the establishment GOP consultants/hacks. Try being a little more humble. Your open border lapdog new Congressman just got held to a whopping 44% of the vote and it's apt to go down further when all the outstanding votes are counted. I think I'm going to take a page out of Jim Rome's playbook and gloss(that's short for glossary) John Campbell.....John "44%" Campbell. It really was an amazing night.

The rest of Allan's musings here.

You can visit this Technorati search for a sampling of reaction by various and sundry blogs.

48th CD Special Election Wrap-Up

The election is over and John Campbell has won a decisive victory. The Gilchrist zombies are already chanting their "losing-is-really-winning" mantra, claiming that "holding" Campbell to less than 50% is a "moral victory" that "sends a message" to Washington. I suppose they're still working on explaining how going from 2nd place in the primary to 3rd place in the general behind a Democrat who wants to let illegals into the country is a "moral victory." But, apparently the conventional rules of logic hold no power on the other side of the looking glass.

Perhaps a side-by-side comparison of the October 4 and December 6 elections will be illuminating.

October 4 Primary

Total Registered Voters      402,006                                                                  
Precinct Registration          402,006
Precinct Ballots Cast            33,547                8.3%                                        
Early Ballots Cast                     964                0.2%                                        
Absentee Ballots Cast          57,200                14.2%                                        
Total Ballots Cast                91,711                2.8%

John Campbell (REP)           41,420                45.5%
Marilyn C. Brewer (REP)       15,595                17.1%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                13,423                14.8%
Steve Young (DEM)                7,941                 8.7%

December 6 General Election

Total Registered Voters      405,655   
Precinct Registration          405,655
Precinct Ballots Cast             34,844                8.6%
Early Ballots Cast                        28                0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast            58,266             14.4%
Total Ballots Cast                  93,138             23.0%

John Campbell (REP)              41,450             44.7%
Steve Young (DEM)                 25,926             28.0%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                   23,237              25.1%
Bea Tiritilli (GRN)                    1,242               1.3%
Bruce Cohen (LIB)                       880               0.9%

Some observations:

1) Defying predictions, turnout yesterday was slightly higher than on October 4. The breakdown of absentees versus precinct ballots was virtually identical.

2) Campbell's vote total was practically unchanged from the October 4 primary, while Young increased his by nearly 18,000 votes and Gilchrist by nearly 10,000 votes. It seems Young garnered most of the Democrat votes that went for Brewer, Graham, Foster and Pallow in October, while Gilchrist presumably picked up a share of Brewer's voters and the loose change from the rest of the October candidate herd.

3) I was surprised that Campbell didn't do better. I was expecting his percentage to land in the mid-50s. Obviously, illegal immigration is a powerful issue -- and one (I think) that is magnified by a low-turnout special election.

3) Gilchrist did exceptionally well for a third party candidate in terms of fund-raising and attracting votes.

4) Steve Young's dramatic increase from the primary to the general is not so dramatic when you conisder he failed to beat the Democratic nominee's showing in in that district for the last three general elections: John Graham received 32.2% in 2004, 28.4% in 2002 and 30.1% in 2000.

The Gilchrist crowd can crow about their "moral victory" (interesting that only in the last couple of days did the Gilchrist zombies start saying they would consider holding Campbell below 50% was the benchmark for a Gilchrist "moral victory"), but which candidate is flying to Washington DC to be sworn in as a Congressman?

Losing is losing, and the hard truth is Gilchrist was beaten by nearly 20,000 votes. Now that we have departed the strange special election universe for the normal environment of a regular elections, you will see Congressman Campbell winning easy victories in the June and November 2006 elections.

 

John Campbell Wins

The absentee results are in, and to no ones surprise, John Campbell wins:

John Campbell:   30895      53.2 %

Steve Young:      14,697     25.3%

Jim Gilchrist:      10,944    18.8%

Bea Tirtilli:              915     1.1%

Bruce Cohen:           644    1.6%

Geez. Gilchrist is behind Steve Young.

Of the 48th CD's 405,655 registered voters,   58,266 of them -- or 14.4% -- cast their ballots by absentee. Given that total turnout  won't be much higher than this, this contest is effectively over.

FR Blogger Adam Probolsky concurs: "I guess the Minute Man has had his 15 already."

Stop The Presses! Power Blue Report Predicts A Gilchrist Victory!

Over at Powder Blue Report, Allan Bartlett posts a column he published on the California Republic, and ventures this astounding prediction for tonight's election:

I think Jim is going to shock people tonight with his showing. My prediction is:

• Gilchrist 38%

• Campbell 37%

• Young 23%

• Cohen 1%

• Tiritilli 1%

Clearly, Allan will not win an OC Blog coffee mug -- although I suspect Phil Paule may have spiked Allan's drinking water with a hallucinogenic.

48th CD Predictions

Well, here we are -- another election, another OC Blog election results prediction contest. As always, the winner will have his or her choice of an attractive OC Blog coffee mug or beer stein.

Rules: Give your vote predictions for John Campbell, Steve Young and Jim Gilchrist. Whoever comes closest, wins.

UPDATE: In order to avoid duplications and ties, your predictions must include tenths-of-a-percent, i.e. 65.3% for Campbell.

Left Blogosphere On CA-48 Election: Hitting The Road To Dreamland

Political Dogfight proprietor Stuart O'Neill, when not dissing OC Blog on Daily Kos, is spinning a political fantasy entitled "Steve Young Gets Elected To Congress":

Steve Young has more than a long shot at CA-48

Yesterday, DavidNYC, from SwingStateProject put the race on the frontpage of DailyKos and at last count before DKos crashed we had 128 comments. Of course the crash had to happen while we were red hot! :))

One of the solid House analyst's is Superribbie [This won't be available until dKos is back up] and his analysis of the race, based on pure mathematics, (assuming a voting pattern similar to the Primary), showed  us coming in with 41%, Campbell 39% and Gilchrist 20%.

My personal analysis is a little different as I think Gilchrist will score better changing the numbers. But we are on TV this weekend and Monday/Tuesday as well as having our live figures, like on the website, in the OC Register! Those figures drive a tremendous amount of traffic to the site.

What do we need today, Saturday? We need even more cash. While the last FEC report hasn't showed the Net contributions, which have really poured in the last 11 days, the more we can raise this weekend the more confident we are in increasing our Media (TV and Newspaper) buys right up to 8 PM Tuesday when the polls close! So whether the cash can reach us that fast isn't the issue. The issue is that the cash is in the pipeline!

So dig deep readers and do your best to support this worthy candidate with your hard earned money.

You can read the rest here.

Still, I give Young credit for coming up with an intriguing proposal for regularizing the flow of illegal immigrants and generating federal revenues from it. I don't think it's practicable, but at least it's original.

And we can at least look forward to being liberated from that accursed cyber-Steve haunting the OC Register website.

Jim Gilchrist's Still Viewing The World Through Rollerball-Colored Glasses

A young blogger named Robbie Haglund here in Orange County posted today about Jim Gilchrist's visit last night to his California Government class at Irvine Valley College.

Haglund aptly captures the essential Jim Gilchrist:

Perhaps the most compelling statement of the evening was the “Rollerball explains it all” theory. Speaking of the 1975 science fiction movie in which the world of the future is controlled by corporations rather than countries, Gilchrist enlightened us as to the prophetic vision this movie portrayed of our dissolving borders. “It dawned on me that the dissolving of our borders… now where have I seen this before? It was the movie Rollerball!” The sad part is, I’m not joking. That is a direct quote.

You should read the entire post here.  Robbie Haglund is a talented writer. I'm adding his blog to the blogroll and recommend making it a regular stop.

Holiday Madness, Or Shrinkage Of Support For Tom Harman?

Now that Assemblyman Tom Harman no longer appears to be a slam dunk for the 35th Senate special election, thanks to Diane Harkey's eruption into the race, are his supporters beginning to hedge their bets?

That was the first thought that crossed my mind after reading this e-mail from Roger Faubel, president of Faubel Public Affairs:

I wanted to let you know as soon as possible that the fundraiser for Assemblyman Tom Harman on Tuesday, November 29th, hosted by Faubel Public Affairs, has been postponed due to the busy holiday season and conflicting events.  Thanks and we'll be in touch.

Three possibilities leap to mind:

1) The explanation can be taken at face value (the Tuesday following Thanksgiving weekend isn't great timing for a fundraiser).

or

2) Attendance looked to be embarassingly sparse, so Faubel is buying some time to pump up the numbers.

or

3) Faubel is pondering jumping off the Harman bandwagon now that ole Tom seems to be running in place and the momentum increasingly shifts to Harkey. That kind of thing happens in the cruel world of politics, after all. Back in 2001, Faubel and then-partner Meg Waters were high-profile supporters of District Attorney challenger Wally Wade when he had loads of media momentum and Tony Rackauckas appeared headed to defeat. Fortunes in that race abruptly reversed in early 2002, and before the March primary arrived Waters & Faubel had abandoned the sinking S.S. Wally Wade.

I suppose all questions will be answered if the Harman fundraiser is re-scheduled.

NRCC Absentee Mailers For John Campbell

The National Republican Campaign Committee has done an independetn expenditure for John Campbell's congressional candidacy in the form of an absentee voter campaign. At least two absentee voter applications and one follow up piece were mailed to an approximately 100,000 voter universe.

This piece went out at the end of October:

And this piece went out during the first week of November:

And the follow up piece:

In light of how much of the December 6 votes will be cast by absentee -- some estiamtes as many as 70% -- the NRCC IE adds another magnitude of power to the tsunami that will hit the Gilchrist and Young campaigns that day.

 

Gilchrist Campaign Hemorrhaging Staff

If true, Pete St. John over at California Campaigns has a great post up.  I share most, if not all, of his retrospective thoughts.

If the Fifteen Minute Man's loss hadn't already seemed a foregone conclusion, it should certainly seem like one now.  While lacking good experience, the Gilchrist team that was in place knew the guy, had gotten to know the area, and had organized an effort that held presumptive Congressman Campbell to less than 50.  They did quite a good job in a field against a large, hardened team of professionals.

The Successor Project Endorses John Campbell For Congress

I received this press release today from The Successor Project:

Statement by Jim Lacy on TSP's Endorsement of John Campbell

November 15, 2005

"We formed The Successor Project earlier this year to research the candidates and find a worthy successor to Chris Cox.  Chris entered office with a significant background in Government: he was a lawyer, former White House Deputy Counsel, and staunch Reaganite.  As a Member of Congress, he helped lead the House into a new era of Republican dominance and forged new paths in the fields of homeland security, technology, taxation, and growth.  He was an outstanding Congressman for his District.

“In our opinion, there is only one candidate for Congress in the special election that even comes close to Chris Cox's credentials and potential. That person is State Senator John Campbell. Senator Campbell has worked for lower taxes and less business regulation while serving in the State Legislature and has a background as a local businessman. His experience will allow him to ‘hit-the-ground running’ when he joins Congress.

“We appreciate candidate Jim Gilchrist's raising the immigration issue and we appreciate his willingness to participate in the TSP interview process.  We wish Senator Campbell had participated in the process and believe he could only have helped himself. Had Campbell participated in our interview and other similar activities, he may’ve been able to obtain the necessary number of votes to win election outright on the first ballot.

“Gilchrist performed well in the TSP interview. Nevertheless, Mr. Gilchrist has made a number of troubling statements and taken several policy positions in interviews and on radio that are of deep concern.  Among them, are statements he has made that appear sympathetic to the estate tax; a comment on the Hugh Hewitt program in defense of his bankruptcy, saying that 140 members of Congress have gone bankrupt (which is untrue); and other statements about a published report that Gilchrist voted for socialist Peter Camejo of the Green Party in the Gubernatorial Election.

“TSP never intended to endorse a candidate for Congress.  We saw our role as conducting research and bringing the candidates’ positions out so people could decide for themselves who the successor to Chris Cox should be.  However, given the concern about Gilchrist's fitness for Congress, TSP's Board wishes to leave absolutely no doubt about our intentions. Therefore, The Successor Project is announcing its endorsement of John Campbell to be the successor to Chris Cox and urges district residents to vote for John Campbell in the December runoff election."

###

Gilchrist Will Be MIA At Tonight's Candidate Forum

The drama may have gone out of the 48th CD special election, but not the theatrics.

Tonight, UCI, the City of Irvine and the League of Women Vipers are hosting one tonight in the Irvine Council Chambers. It will broadcast on Irvine cable, on KUCI-FM, and webcast on the City of Irvine website.  It's one of out-gunned Jim Gilchrist's last opportunity to communicate with voters for free before the Dec. run-off.

John Campbell will be there tonight. Oddly, after months of his campaign howling for John Campbell to debate him candidate forums, Gilchrist announced yesterday he will boycott this debate because of the League's left-wing politics.

Now, I agree with Gilchrist's assessment of the League's politics -- they're practically an adjunct of the Democratic Party. But I suspect this boycott has more to do with his bankruptcy and weird and contradictory statements about candidates and policies he supports. After all, this is the first candidate forum to take place since all that stuff hit the fan. Citing the League's politics strikes me as a rather flimsy excuse, especially since the forum is being moderated by Rick Reiff, a rock-ribbed conservative.

The strange denouement of the Gilchrist campaign continues.

48th CD Special Election Candidate Forum Tomorrow

UC Irvine, the City of Irvine and The League of Women Vipers will be hosting a 48th CD special eclection candidate forum tomorrow evening. The details:

When:    Tuesday, November 15 at 6:30 p.m.

Where:    Irvine City Hall, Council Chambers
                1 Civic Center Plaza

The forum will be moderated by the inimitable Rick Reiff, executive editor of the Orange County Business Journal.

It will be broadcast live on ICTV Channel 30, via webcast on the City of Irvine website, and on the radio on KUCI 88.9 F.M.

Here is the flyer with some more details.

Jim Gilchrist Agrees To Debate John Campbell On Hugh Hewitt Show

Uberblogger and media polymath Hugh Hewitt interviewed 48th CD hopeful Jim Gilchrist on his radio program yesterday.

It wasn't pretty.

Glichrist compounded the damage by agreeing to return to Hugh's show to debate John Campbell.

You can read the listen to the audio and read the ranscript of the interview at the indispensable RadioBlogger, who also links to this new website, TheTruthAboutGilchrist.com. You can also listen to the audio here.

Hugh takes aim in these two posts, as well.

The man should never have run for Congress. Instead of being the citizen-leader of a movement that is helping push illegal immigration back onto the political front-burner, he's becoming a caricature -- which limits his effectiveness as an anti-illegal immigration activist.

UPDATE: Gilchrist true believer Allan Bartlett reacts to the interview on his Powder Blue Report blog.

Jim Gilchrist's Bankruptcy

The subject of Jim Gilchrist's bankruptcy has been floating out there throughout the 48th CD special election. Does he have one, or doesn't he?

He does, and you peruse it here and here and here and here and here. Back in June, when Gilchrist  first threw his hat in the ring, I asked what anyone really knew about him and wondered if he was really prepared for the rough and tumble of a congressional campaign. I think the unprofessional and unfocused nature of his campaign, the weird political statements and unconvincing explanations of those statements, and now this example of personal financial recklessness should convince any remaining doubters that Gilchrist is finished as a candidate.

Transcript Of Gilchrist-for-Camejo Audio

Not everyone is able to listen to the audio I posted of Jim Gilchrist stating he voted for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo for Governor, so here's a transcript of the relevant part:

John Earl:  Alright, well let me ask you, first, I am looking at your website alight and I am reading the quotes from your website and there is a quote here from…somewhere from Martin Luther King?

Jim Gilchrist:  Yes, about…uh…repaving the street.  Actually it’s…um…I can’t quote it verbatim. It’s about turning pessimism into…uh…uh…a positive thing.

Earl:  Yea, it says “We can transform bleak and desolate valleys into sunlit paths of joy and bring new light into the dark caverns of pessimism.”  Alright, do you really think that Martin Luther King would be supporting you today in demanding the deportation of 7 to 10 million undocumented or as you call them illegal immigrants?  Would he be behind you?

Gilchrist:  Umm…you know, I don’t know that’s a good question.  Umm…and that wasn’t…umm…that wasn’t the reason for using his quotes.  It’s more because…um…because I admire his stoicism, his tenacity in accomplishing something peacefully…umm…uh…through the first amendment.  And…

Earl: How does what he did back up what you’re doing?  Or…cause that’s why you are putting the quote there really is to back up what you’re doing.

Gilchrist:  Right…yea…umm…assemble and speak under the first amendment and do it repeatedly.  Do no harm.  You…if you’re…if you’re pushed out of…uh…uh…a neighborhood or beaten up and pushed out of there you come back again.  You still…and you become…become the victim, come back again and speak and…and…and dissemble and if they beat you up again or wash you down with fire hoses…whatever they did to the Blacks in Selma back in the 60’s.

Earl:  Ok and you’re gonna keep…

Gilchrist:  It’s…it’s a…they use it as…uh…uh…oh what’s the phrase…the term…to…to um…um…to utilize… uh…stoicism in what you’re doing.  You don’t take bats and clubs to get your way.  You just keep assembling, keep pushing the idea, keep reminding those who represent you politically and those who live in you’re neighborhood, keep…uh…preaching that same…uh…mantra and just keep going.  And…and…and it was very successful for him.

Earl:  Who are the…

Gilchrist: Go ahead.

Earl:  Who are the victims in this case that you equate with the victims that Martin Luther King was organizing and standing up for?  I mean who is getting…getting beaten down with the water hoses? Who is getting lynched?

Gilchrist:  It’s…well, anyone who assembles under the first amendment regarding the…uh…immigration law enforcement is getting…literally getting beaten, they’re physically attacked. Umm…this is not good.      

Earl:  That happened to you’re…you’re people.

Gilchrist: Yes, yes.

Earl:  You have been physically attacked by police?

Gilchrist: No, no it’s been…uh…protected by the police so that we would have our first amendment.  Umm…been attacked by…uh…Duane Roberts from Garden Grove a member of the Green Party…uh…who by the way I supp…voted for one of his candidates…uh…two years ago.

Earl:  Who was that?

Gilchrist: Uh…Camio

Earl: Camejo.

Gilchrist: Yes, Camejo. Peter Camejo. Yea, umm…I like Peter. I don’t like all of his…his…uh…positions, but…uh…the one about putting more of a tax burden on the ultra wealthy and relieving the lower and middle class of that tax burden, the working bees…uh…the worker bees…uh…I like that and I remember he was on television.

Jim Gilchrist Voted For Peter Camejo for Governor

Jim Gilchrist, self-styled Reagan Republican, voted for Green party candidate Peter Camejo for Governor because he liked Camejo plan to tax "the ultra-wealthy." You can hear this startling admission from Gilchrist in this soundclip.

You can also hear a number of other odd, un-conservative statements by Gilchrist at OC Organizer -- such as his entertaining the possibility of a hybrid amnesty. It may be a left-wing website, but they didn't make Gilchrist say these things.

The Gilchrist candidacy just becomes more bizarre as his handlers try to sell the man as something he isn't, which is unfortunate for the popular upswelling against illegal immigration to the extent that Gilchrist becomes the public face of their movement.

Arrhh, Matey! Gilchrist Dubloon-Raiser On The High Seas

Jim Gilchrist is holding a $1,000 per-person fundraiser on the 1812 American Privateer Lynx this Thursday.

It will be a sunset cruise from 6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Using still-valid letters of marque and reprisal from the War of 1812, Gilchrist donors will have the opportunity to challenge and board LA-to-Ensenada cruise ships and search the holds for stowaway illegal immigrants.

John Seiler on Brewer's "Howard Dean Scream Moment"

OC Register editorialist weigh's in on Marilyn Brewer's ungracious defeat statement:

Brewer's Howard Dean Scream Moment

OC Blog posts a copy of Marilyn Brewer's lament in defeat, giving us a handy link for future gloating. The first thing I noted is that she didn't try to appeal to the Campbell supporters by saying something like, "Yes, I really, really want to cut taxes!"

She laments the low voter turnout. What did she expect? This essentially was a Republican primary with with nothing else. It's not surprising that only 22 percent of voters turned out. Democrats had little reason to show up, such as a chance to vote for Gray Davis or a tax increase. But if 100 percent of voters had turned out, would the result have been any different?

Then she says "our polling showed 50 percent of this district is pro-choice and 70 percent is pro stem-cell research." But I suspect that this district will vote pro-life on Propositon 73 next month. Just last November Prop. 71, $3 billion in bonds for stem-cell research, barely passed in all O.C., with just 52.3 percent, with voters ill-informed because there was hardly any opposition (which I blame on religious groups that didn't get their act together to tell people this is Frankenstein "science" using aborted babies).

She writes, "Someone just pointed out that it took Campbell the full weight of the local, state and national party leadership and a last-minute unprecedented independent expenditure by the state Republican party to beat us and still not break 50%. When you look at it that way, we did rather well I think..."

Fortunately, she spared us more of her thoughts. And it's rather in bad taste to attack the Republican establishment that, after she finagled an Assembly seat by letting two conservatives split their vote, didn't run anybody against her in her two re-elections. Had they done so, she would have been one-term Brewer. Put another way, on Tuesday she got about half the votes she did in her first Assembly run.

In reality, Campbell won because, like Chris Cox, he's a good fit for this district. He co-opted his only real threat, Jim Gilchrist, on the immigration issue, while Brewer was weak on the issue. He favors tax cuts and budget cuts and is pro-life, intelligent, and ran an efficient campaign. That will bring him easy victory in November.

As for Brewer, she should have quit two weeks ago and endorsed Campbell, ensuring his victory in the first round, and maybe getting her at least reasonable words from the big shots should she run for another office. Instead, she stayed in and angered Campbell and local Republicans, who will have to spend more money the next two months, during which time the GOP delegation in Congress also will be short another member.

That's what will be remembered.

Timing Is Everything

I received this e-mail from Dana Reed, election law expert and political eminence grise:

Jubal:

If John would resign his seat in the Senate right away, the Governor could call the special election for January 31, 2006.  That means the Primary would be held on December 6th...the same day as Campbell's election to Congress.

This would save lots of $$$ and reduce the time that OC was underrepresented in the State Senate.

Dana Reed

An interesting suggestion and correct on its merits. My view on when to call a special election for the 35th SD hinges on what will most benefit a conservative alternative to Tom Harman.

48th CD Also-Ran Endorses Campbell

I received this good-natured e-mail from Guy Mailly, a conservative Republican who was a candidate in the October 4 primary:

Thank you to those who have followed my campaign through emails and blogs.  It is humbling to be asked to run and to receive the trust of others.  Now that John Campbell has "eked out his victory over me[which can be loosely translated as "trounced me"] , I wholeheartedly endorse him and wish him great success as my congressman.  John is true fiscal conservative.  Perhaps he can begin to restore some sanity to Congressional spending.

Guy Mailly

John Fund: Minute Man's Minute Is Up

From today's Political Diary:

Minute Man's Minute Is Up

Anti-immigration activists are touting the 14% showing of Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman Project, in a special election to fill the House seat of Chris Cox, the Californian who resigned to head the Securities and Exchange Commission. Mr. Gilchrist, who ran under the banner of the American Independent Party, will now face GOP State Senator John Campbell, a leader of anti-tax forces in the state, in a December runoff. Mr. Campbell won 46%, just shy of the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

While it's true that Mr. Gilchrist almost beat Marilyn Brewer, a former GOP state legislator who had been endorsed by John McCain and former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, Mr. Gilchrist's showing is unimpressive on close examination. Chuck Muth, a political consultant who works with candidates who oppose immigration, said Mr. Gilchrist was inarticulate on issues other than immigration and failed to raise money for his campaign. "Without that... he's dead meat on December 6," admitted Mr. Muth. "What a squandered opportunity."

-- John Fund

Ouch.

After embracing Jim Gilchrist's candidacy with such fanfare back in Gilchrist's glory days, Chuck Muth is pretty quick to skedaddle away from the car wreck.  With friends like these...

[By the way, Political Diary is a great deal. For $3.95 a month -- the price of a latte at Starbucks -- you get a month's worth of great political short takes and insider insight.]

Organization and Experience Make All The Difference

There a several reasons why Sen. John Campbell's campaign overwhelmed the opposition in the 48th CD special election. Obviously, money, name ID and political philosophy had a lot to do with it. Equally important wasa campaign team -- Dave Gilliard, Jim Terry and Phil Paule -- that overmatched the other candidates' teams in terms of experience in winning races in Orange County, and in winning races on the ground.

Let's take Phil Paule, for example. Although OC Blog readers are familiar with his frequent comments on this blog, they may not be aware that he is one of the best -- and some would contend the best -- campaign professionals in California Republican politics. Strategist Gilliard and campaign manager Terry played more public roles, but Phil Paule was the Campbell campaign's secret weapon. If Paule is on the opposing campaign team, you know you have a tough road ahead.

For example, in 2002, then-Sen. Jim Brulte called in Paule to take over the ground campaign for Jeff Denham, the GOP nominee for the 12 Senate District -- Central Valley seat that had been drawn to favor a Democrat. It was the only open Senate seat that year where the GOP had any shot of winning. The Democratic nominee was well-known former Assemblyman Rusty Arieas. Paule's experience and unique genius for tapping the grass-roots and keeping the opposition of balance.

You can pour money into an election, but unless you have a top-notch ground game and experienced staff to back up the candidate and keep the opposition on the defensive, it's usually money down the drain.

In my opinion, that was a big factor in Tuesday's results. Gilchrist's campaign (with the notable exception of mail consultant Bieber Communications, which knows OC politics) was the political equivalent of an angry peasant mob -- lots of passion and enthusiasm, but inexperienced, unorganized and no match for the professionals. Gilchrist partisans can snipe about "mercenaries," but experience matters. A lot. One experienced pro like Phil Paule can have more impact than a roomful of volunteers with lots of enthusiasm and no idea what to do with it.

Brewer's consultant Harvey Englander is a savvy pro, but he doesn't work in OC much anymore and lacks the ongoing knowledge of the county and the 48th that Team Campbell has.

And, you can't win an election on just one issue.

The Gilchrist campaign portrays its 30-point landslide defeat as a victory. That's what campaigns and politicians do: they spin. But it's worth noting that margin is so wide because the gap between the Campbell's and Gilchrist's campaigns in terms of experience, organization and discipline was even wider.

Gilchrist Claims Victory

Spinning faster than my hard drive, an evening email from the Gilchrist campaign:

With 268 of 268 precincts reporting in California's District 48, Minuteman Founder Jim Gilchrist emerged victorious from Tuesday's primary, having forced a run-off of the top vote-getters of each qualified party in a Dec. 6 special general election—and having scored a second-place surge of Election Day votes.  Gilchrist climbed steadily as the precinct-vote results were coming in, while Republican State Assemblyman John Campbell dropped steadily beneath the 50% threshold needed to win outright, settling at 45.7%.

Gilchrist drew 14.6% in the County Registrar’s near-final tally—an unprecedented and formidable showing for an Independent candidate in a crowded field of 17 hopefuls. Leading Democrat Steve Young drew single digits, at 8.7%.  Gilchrist, Campbell, and Young will contend in December for a seat vacated by the appointment of Rep. Chris Cox to the Securities and Exchange Commission, necessitating the special election.  A total of 89,991 votes were cast in the primary, representing 22% of registered voters in the district.

In assessing Tuesday's results, the most astonishing political result is that Gilchrist garnered nearly 27% of the precinct votes actually cast on Election Day (as opposed to votes cast early by absentee ballot)--demonstrating a 21-point surge following the two weeks of Early/Absentee Voting, compared to a 15-point drop for Campbell on election day.

Early/Absentee vote:

Campbell 52%
Brewer 15%
Young 10%
Gilchrist 6%

Election Day vote:

Campbell 37%
Gilchrist 27%
Brewer 19%
Young 7%

It's worth noting that over 60% of all ballots cast were submitted as "absentee" ballots (which under California law are essentially equivalent to voting by mail). Many, if not most, of these ballots were submitted weeks earlier—before the Gilchrist campaign made its final push prior to Tuesday's election.

The Gilchrist campaign now has two full months to continue to put Jim Gilchrist in front of the electorate before the general election—and clearly, as people come to know Jim, they love him and what he stands for.  This two-month window will greatly benefit Jim Gilchrist, who enjoys a substantial 48th District and national following for his leadership on America’s border security and illegal immigration crisis.

Final 48th CD Tally -- With Write-Ins!

No, Allan Bartlett did not get a write in. But Steven Westley Blake did get one -- presumably his own. And Deleica Holts 600,000 fliers garnered her 8 write-ins. [Query: if Delecia recieves 8 votes for every 600,000 fliers, how many fliers will she have to sent out to beat John Campbell?] H/T to Martin Wisckol.

Anyway, here are the latest totals:

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)        40,746    45.7%

MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 15,287    17.1%

JIM GILCHRIST (AI)             13,028    14.6%

STEVE YOUNG (DEM)           7,805     8.7%

JOHN GRAHAM (DEM)          3,620     4.1%

BEA FOSTER (DEM)              2,901     3.3%

DON UDALL (REP)                 1,399    1.6%

JOHN KELLY (REP)                1,050    1.2%

BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN)                778    0.9%

BRUCE COHEN (LIB)                 721    0.8%

DAVID R. CROUCH (REP)           511  0.6%

SCOTT MACCABE (REP)             389   0.4%

MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP)         345  0.4%

TOM PALLOW (DEM)                299  0.3%

GUY E. MAILLY (REP)                152    0.2%

MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 105 0.1%

EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP)          101  0.1%

DELECIA HOLT                            8    0.0%

STEVEN WESLEY BLAKE              1    0.0%

Silence Dogood's 48th CD Winners & Losers

My esteemed blogging colleague Silence Dogood, after quaffing some deep draughts from a dusty bottle of Old Bitter, gives his take on who are the winners and losers from the October 4 primary. For the most part, I agree with Silence, but some of his choices for Losers are puzzling.

John Campbell?

Dave Gilliard?

Me?

John Campbell absolutely blows away his opponents, and Silence puts him in the Loser column because he didn't annihilate them into sub-atomic particles? The same goes for putting Gilliard in the Loser category.  Silence's reasoning is the same used by the Democrats when they tried to spin Paul Hackett's loss in the Ohio 2nd CD special election as a victory because the Republican didn't win by more.

Come one, Silence. You Gilchrist supporters are starting to sound like Marilyn.

On December 7, only one person is going to be sworn in as Congressman: John Campbell. And that person, my friends, is called the winner.

Memo to John Kobylt: Not Everyone Is Trying To Fool You

It's the top of the 4:00 hour and I'm listening to John & Ken (unfortunately, I missed their interview with Jim Gilchrist). They're talking about how John Campbell is coming on their show at 5:00 p.m. Then John relays how they had trouble locating Campbell earlier in the day and accuses Campbell's staff of lying, because they told J & K's producer that they didn't know where Campbell was, and subsequently that Campbell was at a car show and had turned his cel phone off.  Then, John puts them on notice that he'll "see through" such cover stories every time.

I like listening to John & Ken. They are a powerful force for holding liberals and government bureaucrats accountable, and for shining a spotlight on issues that need it.

But John can be such a petty egomaniac sometimes. Why is it beyond the realm of possibility that Campbell -- after an intense, grueling campaign -- wants to take the day off and be unavailable? If I were in Cambell's shoes, I'd do exactly the same thing.

John's probably just upset about Gilchrist's poor showing.

Bitterness, Thy Name Is Brewer

Does anyone remember a cartoon called The Angriest Dog In The World by David Lynch that used to run in alternative weeklies back in the 1980s? It always started with this intro:

"The dog who is so angry he cannot move. He cannot eat. He cannot sleep. He can just barely growl...bound so rightly with tension and anger, he approaches the state of rigor mortis."

I haven't thought about The Angriest Dog In The World years. But for some reason, after reading this bitter, seething defeat statement on Marilyn Brewer's website, it was the first thing that popped into my mind:

Our thanks to all the supporters of this effort. We are proud of the effort we made and for raising the issues we did. We look forward to remaining active in the community on these issues and continuing to make a difference in the community. A special thanks to those of you who walked precincts, made phone calls, contributed money, provided advice, contacts and insight. We could not have gotten as far as we did without you and that will never be forgotten.

What's sad is that the person with the most votes and likely to be the next member of Congress advanced with the blessing of only 9% of registered voters. We firmly believe the low turnout, which favors extreme conservatives was the factor, because our polling showed 50% of this district is pro-choice and 70% is pro stem cell research. A bill is pending before Congress to allow oil drilling off California, something opposed by the vast majority of this district. But the people have spoken. And they said, "What election?" Our thanks though goes out to all who worked for, fought for and voted for ANY candidate in this race. We have a representative form of government and you all are members of the representative citizenry who take the time and energy to represent other voters to elect those who will serve all of us. Each one of you who voted represented a constituency of five others and the burden on you is great, but we urge you all to stay involved and fight the good fight.

Thank you all again for your support.

Marilyn Brewer and the Brewer for Congress team

P.S. Someone just pointed out that it took Campbell the full weight of the local, state and national party leadership and a last minute unprecedented independent expenditure by the state Republican party to beat us and still not break 50%. When you look at it that way, we did rather well I think...

Translation: Stupid, stupid voters!

H/T to commenter KenB to hipping me to this defeat statement by Marilyn Brewer, posted on her website after I'd pulled a much milder statement earlier.

Orange Punch (OCR's Blog) on Yesterday

Brewer down and out

Marilyn Brewer's brief and pathetic elective political career is over after she finished a distant second in yesterday's special election. As I mentioned in a blog a few days ago, she only won her Assembly seat because two conservatives who ran against her in the Assembly primary race canceled each other out -- as I warned them they would during a debate at UCI at the time.

Good riddance.
Posted by John Seiler - jseiler@ocregister.com at 10:00 AM

---

Where are all the RINOs?

Marilyn Brewer's poor showing in the congressional special election reinforces what most of us know: Liberal, pro-choice, pro-government, pro-regulation, pro-eminent-domain Republicans have no real base of support. That's why they favor open primaries -- they have to rig the rules to get Democratic votes to be competitive, and they have to distort their records, pretending to be conservatives. The special election was an open primary and look at Brewer's pathetic numbers! Republicans do well by sticking to principles, not buying the RINO line that they need to constantly moderate.
Posted by Steven Greenhut -- sgreenhut@ocregister.com at 9:12 AM

---

Seiler's also got some advice for Steve Young on the Blog.

Reactions To The 48th CD Election Results

Reactions from around the country and the blogosphere:

The Club For Growth

"The voters of California's 48th congressional district have made a strong statement in favor of the limited government, lower taxes agenda for which Sen. Campbell is a leading advocate," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "It was because of Campbell's leadership on these issues that the Club for Growth PAC was among his first and biggest supporters."

Read the whole statement here.

FlashReport.org Publisher Jon Fleischman

My State Senator, John Campbell, is going to be my Congressman.  Just not yet.  So many people wanted him to win the primary outright (the rules say that if you get a majority of votes cast in the 'open' special primary, you immediately assume office), that it is taking a little wind out of the win.  Well, I disagree with that -- A WIN IS A WIN.  Congratulations, John!  Also a big shout out goes to Campbell's consultant and FR friend Dave Gilliard and to Campbell's top operative on the ground-game, Jim Terry.

Analysis for December:  This will be a sleeper.  Minuteman leader Jim Gilchrist will be on the ballot as the American Independent party nominee, but his lackluster performance yesterday has relegated him to a direct-mail fundraising money-maker for someone back east.  SLAM DUNK FOR CAMPBELL.

Free Enterprise Fund

“John Campbell is a strong advocate for free market principles and will make an excellent addition to the U.S. House of Representatives after he wins in December,” said FEFPAC chairman Mallory Factor.

“We were pleased to be among the first to endorse his bid for Congress and, while it is unfortunate he did not win enough votes to be declared the congressman-elect after the primary, we are confident he will win in December,” Factor said.

Marilyn Brewer

"Our thanks to all the supporters of this effort. We are proud of the effort we made and for raising the issues we did. We look forward to remaining active in the community on these issues and continuing to make a difference in the community."

Did RINOs Give Us A Run-Off?

FlashReport Blog's Jason Roe posts about "Things To Thank The Republican Main Street Partnership For:"

Tuesday's special election for the 48th Congressional District was decided more by interlopers than the voters of the 48th CD.  The East Coast-based Main Street Partnership decided that the candidate endorsed by moderate Republican Governor Arnold Swartzenegger and the California Republican Party...not to mention many members of the California congressional delegation, was not good enough so they spent a few hundred thousand dollars attacking the lead GOP candidate.  Here's the list of things we can thank Main Street for:

1. Bringing Marilyn Brewer up to 16% from 10%

2. Taking John Campbell down from 50+1% to 46%

3. Putting this seat on the radar for Democrats

4. Forcing Orange County taxpayers to pay for, and endure, a 3rd election in 3 months

5. Keeping the slim House Republican majority one vote slimmer

6. Wasting hundreds of thousands of Republican dollars by forcing a run-off, not to mention, the money they wasted leading up to Tuesday

7. Giving John & Ken a forum (and candidate) to continue to beat the hell out of the GOP

Thanks guys!

                           

Brewer for OCTA

I'll make one meager prediction based on last night -- after getting thoroughly creamed, watch for Marilyn Brewer